Gale Warning 89, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
328 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY NE TODAY SPREADING RAIN AND WIND ACROSS THE GULF.
OFFSHORE BUOYS RECORDED WINDS AS HIGH AS 47 KT OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS
REACHING 27 FEET IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WERE NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON
LAND AS THE HIGHEST GUSTS RECORDED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WAS 43 KT
AT SITKA AROUND 7 AM THIS MORNING.

THIS FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS
STEERING FLOW TURNS MORE SW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
PUSH THE FRONT INLAND. WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG AS THE JET
SUPPORT THAT IT DID HAVE OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED NW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. AS A RESULT THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING (NOTHING
HIGHER THEN 25 KT OR SO THOUGH).

AS FOR THE PRECIP, THE MORE ORGANIZED RAIN BANDS ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE OUTER COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING BEFORE STARTING
TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. THE NAM, ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW WILL SPIN UP
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR HAIDA GWAII THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRACKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES
SEEMS TO SHOW A SLIGHT KINK IN THE FRONTAL BAND NEAR HAIDA GWAII
SO DECIDED TO LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE SOME
RAIN TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE A LITTLE BIT LONGER
THEN WHAT WILL BE SEEN FARTHER NORTH. OTHERWISE FRONTAL RAIN BANDS
WILL BE SWITCHING TO SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LINGER,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS A SECOND UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH TOMORROW.

AS FOR P-TYPE, RAIN WILL BE DOMINATE TONIGHT BUT STARTS BECOMING
MORE QUESTIONABLE EARLY TOMORROW AS A SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -6 C OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MON MORNING RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THE LEFT
OVER SHOWERS BEING IN THE FORM OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER BY THIS POINT THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED
IN INTENSITY AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. THE COOLER AIR
MOVING OVER THE GULF MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DON'T THINK THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES DO SHOW SOME DECENT
AREAS OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN DETECTED.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM FOR SOME OF THE
DETAILS THAT THESE MODELS PROVIDE.

.LONG TERM...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE LOW OVER GULF AND
HIGH OVER NORTHWEST NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL MEAN THE CONTINUATION
OF ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH WETTER AND WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A HIGH MOVING FROM
SOUTHEAST ALASKA INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE REMNANT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ON TUESDAY, MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE PANHANDLE, AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
IMPACT SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS STILL WAY OFF SOUTH OF ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE GALE FORCE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW WILL
BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 45 KT FOR THE CENTRAL GULF, AND THEN
SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH TO THE
EAST AND LOW TO THE WEST, A STRONG EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD NOT BE TOO HIGH,
AS EASTERLY FLOW IS NOT A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT THE
PANHANDLE. RIGHT NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A WETTER SYSTEM THAN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WEAKENING FRONT. BEYOND THURSDAY, THE
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES, AND THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WETTER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONFINE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051>053.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041>043.
&&

EAL/RCL

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