Gale Warning 8, NWS Juneau, AK

101 
FZAK67 PAJK 101201
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-110100-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF SUN AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SE ALASKA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. 

$$

PKZ310-110100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE HALF...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN. SW HALF...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE.
SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
502 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE FAR ERN GULF
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY...THEN MOSTLY DISSIPATE OVER THE ERN
INNER CHANNELS BY LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SRN GULF TONIGHT. MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND USED BLEND OF THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z
GFS FOR THE FORECAST. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SLIGHTLY SPEED UP THE
FRONT COMING IN TODAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL/TYPE/AMOUNTS AND
WINDS. RIGHT NOW IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY AREA...HAVE A LITTLE
FREEZING RAIN GOING ON WITH WARM LAYER ALOFT AND SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS AT SFC STILL HERE BUT ERODING QUICKLY. AM EXPECTING THIS
TO BECOME ALL RAIN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS PICK UP AND HELP MIX OUT THE
REMAINING COLD AIR BY AROUND 15Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVY GOING THROUGH THAT TIME. FURTHER N...THERE IS SOME SNOW
GOING ON...BUT EVEN THEY WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY RAIN AS SLY WINDS
DEVELOP IN LOWER LEVELS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY
GET 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OF ZONES 18 AND 19...AND NEAR
HYDER. ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS THAT WILL HAVE SNOW BEYOND MIDDAY
TODAY ARE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ZONE 18...AND NEAR HYDER IN
ZONE 29. AM EXPECTING PRECIP TO DIMINISH AS FRONT COMES INLAND AND
MOSTLY DISSIPATES OVER THE ERN AREA TONIGHT...BUT A SMALL AREA OF
RAIN MAY PERSIST OVER THE FAR SERN AREA AS A PIECE OF THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY GET HUNG UP THERE.

THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF GALE FORCE E-SE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF
EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT. ONCE FRONT GOES
PAST...WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW AND DROP OFF QUICKLY TO BELOW 20 KT
IN MOST ERN GULF AREAS. THE MORE E-W INNER CHANNELS WILL HAVE MORE
WIND WITH UP TO SCA LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MORE N-S CHANNELS WILL BE GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS. THESE WINDS
SHOULD DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT AS FRONT MOSTLY DISSIPATES...BUT THE
GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN SOME LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FRONT
SO THEY MAY BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT LATE. THE SECOND FRONT WILL
BRING GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE S-CENTRAL GULF LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE LARGE S-SW SWELLS (10-15 FT) STILL
GOING ON OVER THE ERN GULF AND SOME OCEAN ENTRANCES TO INNER
CHANNELS DUE TO ACTIVE STORM TRACK WELL SW OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
GULF AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE ALEUTIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH STORMS INTO THE
GULF OF AK WHERE THEY RUN INTO THE RIDGE AND DISSIPATE. THE FIRST
STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUN INTO MON BRINGING ADVISORY LEVEL
TO GALE FORCE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE GULF. SLIGHT OFFSHORE
COMPONENT IN SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE SO MOST SEA LEVEL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS SNOW LEVELS MAY STAY LOW ENOUGH FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT E AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF TUE-
WED. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WAVES
DAMPENING THE RIDGE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS...
ELECTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
MAINLY WARM AND WET...BEFORE MODELS HINT AT RIDGE SHIFTING W AGAIN
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AKZ025.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-035-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

RWT/BC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1032 AM AKST SAT JAN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FREEZING RAIN    2 SSW MENDENHALL GLACIE 58.39N 134.57W
01/09/2016  E0.20 INCH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            0.2 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION OCCURED OVERNIGHT AT THE
            JUNEAU NWS OFFICE IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY.

1029 AM     FREEZING RAIN    JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
01/09/2016  E0.00 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS REPORTED ON AREA ROADWAYS IN JUNEAU DUE
            TO ICY CONDITIONS.

&&

DEL