Gale Warning 78, NWS Juneau, AK

065 
FZAK67 PAJK 031256
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED FEB 3 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-040100-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 3 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
CROSS OVER THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECOND GALE FORCE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF EARLY THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-040100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 3 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N HALF...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
S HALF...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT. RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
335 PM AKST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A
DISSIPATING FRONT MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE. A 962 MB LOW IS MOVING
NORTH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH A SECOND STRONGER FRONT TRACKING
INTO THE SOUTHERN AK GULF REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TUESDAY FRONT PRODUCED SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PANHANDLE WITH MORE ENHANCED BAND OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A SNOW LESS JANUARY FOR JUNEAU,
GETTING SOME SNOW UNDER THIS ENHANCED BAND. WHILE VISIBILITY
DROPPED TO 2 MILES AT TIMES EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS, POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH BUT OVERALL THE SNOW IS
MELTING ON CONTACT AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF. PRECIP
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS VORT MAX ON LEE SIDE OF 500
MB RIDGE OVER THE FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
THE GULF WILL DROP OVER THIS EVENING BUT OTHER WISE NOT MUCH
CHANGE FOR GULF OR INNER CHANNEL WINDS TONIGHT.

AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN MORE WARM AIR MOVING IN, SO TEMPS WILL
NOT DROP OFF MUCH TONIGHT BUT THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S FOR WEDNESDAY. WINDS OVER THE GULF PICKING BACK UP TO GALE
FORCE AND AS THE FRONT MOVES IN INNER CHANNEL WIND BACK UP TO
SMALL CRAFT WITH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. GUSTY WINDS
OVERLAND FOR THE SOUTH MAY JUST NEAR 40 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON BUT
LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGER WINDS OCCUR MORE TOWARD THE EVENING.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
CANADA PRODUCING SOME HIGHER OUTFLOW WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU. WITH THE LACK OF COLD AIR NO TAKU EVENT SHOULD
OCCUR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE
HYDER AREA EXPECT PRECIP TO FALL MAINLY AS RAIN. AS THE FRONT DOES
NOT QUITE HIT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN
INCH THERE WITH POSSIBLY 2 INCHES OVER THE HIGHWAYS. FOR HYDER
THE EASTERLY OUTFLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND WITH MOST
QPF CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH SNOW ACCUMULATION MORE TOWARDS TO 2 TO
3 INCH RANGE.

MODELS KEPT ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NAM/ECMWF STILL
MODELS OF CHOICE WITH GFS MORE OF AN OUTLIER FOR A WEAK WAVE IT
DEVELOPS IN THE SE GULF. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
MOVING SNOW EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WITH MOST PRECIP DIMINISHING
LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WET,
WINDY AND GENERALLY WARMER CONDITIONS. USED THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR
UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST THROUGH DAY 4. THEN UTILIZED THE
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE.

STORM TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL AID IN
PUSHING MULTIPLE FRONTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE FRONT MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECOND FRONT WILL BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS FOR
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. AT THIS TIME THE THURSDAY FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE
STRONGER OF THE TWO WITH A 60 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
SPREADING OVER THE PANHANDLE. STRONG WIND HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MODELS ARE INDICATING POTENTIAL WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT
WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONG FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL GENERALLY BE LIQUID EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND HYDER. THERE ARE PERIODS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST WHERE SNOW IS INCLUDED IN JUNEAU, GUSTAVUS, HOONAH BUT
THIS IS MARGINAL AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO ANY NOTABLE
ACCUMULATION. SIGNIFICANT WAA ALOFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES REACHING POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS
+4-5 C OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND +10 C OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN FORECASTED SNOW LEVELS AS HIGH AS
4-5K OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND 7K OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. UNFORTUNATELY FOR SNOW LOVERS, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY REPRIVE FROM THIS WARMER AIR INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DIRECTING SOUTHWEST FLOW RIGHT INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>035.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

PRB/TPS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU