Gale Warning 7, NWS Juneau, AK

197 
FZAK67 PAJK 091216
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-100100-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT...THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN INNER
CHANNELS BY LATE SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE N
INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-100100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...NE HALF...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT.
SW HALF...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT.
RAIN LATE.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
250 PM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED
IMMEDIATELY S OF THE SRN GULF AT MIDDAY FRI...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDED NWD FROM THE FAR NERN PAC ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN CANADA.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNW TO THE AK PENINSULA DUE TO THE
BLOCKING RIDGE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...A
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER AND OCCLUDED GALE FORCE FRONT WILL
ADVANCE NE TO THE ERN GULF BY LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN WASH
OUT/WEAKEN DURING SAT AS BOTH FEATURES ENCOUNTER THE PANHANDLE AND
UPPER RIDGE.

FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF SE AK
LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND DURING SAT. COLD /20S TO LOW
30S/ BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE AS
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /WHICH WILL PROMOTE WET BULB
COOLING/...SNOW MIXED WITH SOME RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL MOTION IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
STRONG...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST SEA
LEVEL LOCATIONS SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A 40 KT LOW-
LEVEL SELY JET DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
AID IN A TRANSITION FROM SNOW/RAIN TO PRIMARILY RAIN BY SAT
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
INNER CHANNELS...MODERATE GUSTS /PERHAPS UP TO 30-35 MPH/ WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LLJ FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KETCHIKAN...HYDABURG...AND POSSIBLY JUNEAU. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT
DISSIPATES OVER THE PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE LONG RANGE DOES NOT CHANGE
THAT MUCH AS A GENERAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE
CANADIAN AND U.S. WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS
ISLANDS. THIS MEANS THAT THE GENERAL PACIFIC STORM TRACK STILL
TERMINATES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE NEXT WEEK LEAVING THE SE
PANHANDLE UNDER WARM AND POSSIBLY DAMP CONDITIONS.

LONG RANGE STARTS WITH THE REMAINS OF SAT'S FRONT STARTING TO
EXIT THE AREA SAT NIGHT. BY THIS POINT SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD HAVE
WARMED UP ENOUGH FOR ANY REMAINING PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AT SEA LEVEL. SKAGWAY AND HAINES MAY BE THE EXCEPTIONS BUT
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY MAKE IT IN FOR AT LEAST A MIX AT SEA
LEVEL. ANY MORE ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AS PRECIP WILL BE
ENDING SAT EVENING.

INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK A NEW FRONT WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE GULF BRINGING SMALL CRAFT AND GALE FORCE
WINDS TO MUCH OF THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SE WILL
KEEP THE FRONT MAINLY OFFSHORE ON SUN, BUT AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE
COMES NORTH THE FLOW TURNS MORE S BY MON ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO
START TO SPREAD OVER THE PANHANDLE. BY THIS POINT, WARM AIR WILL
BE RATHER WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE PANHANDLE SO MOST SEA LEVEL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN OUT OF THIS. HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS MAY
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS SNOW LEVELS MAY STAY LOW ENOUGH FOR THOSE
AREAS TO SEE SOME SNOW. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
EXCEPT FOR THE GEM-NH WHICH HAD A NOTICEABLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF THEN MOST OTHER MODELS. DECIDED TO
GO FOR A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF TODAY AS THOSE TWO INITIALIZED
CURRENT FEATURES MUCH BETTER THEN THE NAM DID.

FARTHER OUT THE FORECAST BECOMES MURKY AS MODEL AGREEMENT FALLS
APART. THE GENERAL PATTERN IS STILL THERE BUT THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
FORECASTING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
HAS THE VARIOUS MODELS SUGGESTING SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN THING THAT THEY DO AGREE ON IS
THAT THE LONG RANGE WILL MAINLY STAY WARM AND DAMP WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND THE POSSIBLY OF TWO MORE STORMS AFFECTING THE PANHANDLE
BETWEEN THE MON FRONT AND NEXT WEEKEND. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA ARE THE TOPICS THE MODELS
GENERALLY DO NOT AGREE ON AT THE MOMENT SO GENERALLY FELL BACK ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND WPC FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036.

&&

GARNER/EAL

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