Gale Warning 61, NWS Juneau, AK

196 
FZAK52 PAJK 231858 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
958 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-240100-
958 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-240100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
958 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
SW SWELL.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-240100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
958 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-240100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
958 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-240100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
958 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-240100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
958 AM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. GUSTS TO 50
KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SE SWELL IN THE
MORNING. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
421 PM AKST FRI JAN 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A COMPLEX
SERIES OF UPPER LOWS ROTATING OVER THE AK GULF. MAIN SURFACE LOW
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS IS NOW CENTERED NEAR KODIAK WITH THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT HAVING MOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE YUKON EARLIER TODAY.
 A SECOND WAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE PANHANDLE BRITISH
COLUMBIA BORDER. MODELS HAD THIS WAVE BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST
WITH MORE PRECIP OVER AKZ26 BUT COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR SAT ARE
MORE TO THE EAST AND GETTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE. NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CROSSING INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND WILL MOVE
NEXT BAND OF STEADY RAIN LATE TONIGHT. BETWEEN THESE BANDS DRYING
SLOT MOVED OVER THE PANHANDLE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND
INDICATED BUY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB
ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. AREAS UNDER THIS SLOT SAW FEW MORE BREAKS IN
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER. THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE MOVES IN.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE FRONT DIMINISHED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE WHILE THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE PRECIP LINGERED LATER IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW KEPT
MOST LOCATIONS AS RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAINES AND SKAGWAY
WHICH WERE UNDER WINTER WEATHER WARNING AND ADVISORY
RESPECTIVELY. HAINES TO THE BORDER RECEIVED 10 TO 14 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH 9 AM WITH SKAGWAY TO WHITE PASS GETTING 1 TO 5
INCHES. TEMPERATURES FOR THESE LOCATIONS WARMED WITH SNOW
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AS WINDS SHIFTED TOT HE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE
TEMPS WARMED EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S THEN HAVE
WITHER REMAINED STEADY OR DROPPED THROUGH THE DAY. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH DIURNAL CHANGE TONIGHT OR INTO SATURDAY. HAINES AND SKAGWAY
AND THE HIGHWAYS THERE MAY HAVE TEMPS DROP ENOUGH FOR MORE SNOW
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW BUT ONLY EXPECTING A INCH OR TWO. AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST TONIGHT THE FRONTAL BAND MAY SHEAR APART
BIT EARLIER WITH RAIN DIMINISHING AND SWITCHING TO SHOWERS BIT
EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STEADILY DROPPED OVER THROUGH THE
DAY THEN WILL PICK UP AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS UNDER THE 500
MB VORT BAND CROSSING INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY. GETTING
SOME ENHANCED WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS THIS EVENING
WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND AS EVIDENT WITH WINDS AT 925 MB. SHOULD
ONLY RISE TO 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

NAM HAD GOOD HANDLE ON POSITION OF LOW CENTER IN THE WESTERN AK
GULF. GFS WHILE DID NOT INITIALIZE AS WELL WAS CLOSE TO FORECAST
PRESSURE FIELDS COMPARED TO THE NAM. USED SOME NAM TO UPDATE GRIDS
MOVING THE SHORT WAVE LOBE BIT FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING, BUT
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST GRIDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK HAS BEEN STABLE WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE SCALE.
THERE STILL IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BUT THE OVERALL
TREND WILL BE AN ACTIVE GULF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
PRECIPITATION. THERE WAS NOT MANY CHANGES DONE TO THE FORECAST BUT
WHERE CHANGES WERE DONE THE 12Z NAM AND EC WERE USED. THERE WILL
BE A MAJOR STORM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
SOUTH OF THE CHAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH TEMPS ON
THE WARMER SIDE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM. THE
WIND OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BE MAINLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS BUT
SEA HEIGHT BUILD TO BE AROUND 15 FT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC FROM THE
BEARING WITH A UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL LIFT A STRONG AND MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS
LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS TO GALES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SMALL
CRAFT WIND OVER E/W CHANNELS OVER THE INSIDE WATERS. RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WITH AROUND 1-3
INCHES. THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT
IF SOME COLDER AIR GETS PULLED IN FROM THE INTERIOR OR THERE IS
SNOW MELT COOLING FROM HIGH PRECIP RATES. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A
LONG FETCH TO THE PACIFIC THAT THERE WILL VERY LARGE SEAS OF 24 TO
27 FT BY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT IS INCREASING WITH
EVERY MODEL RUN AND FURTHER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SITUATION.

AFTER THAT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA A UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF TO KEEP WAVE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE WET AND WARM SIDE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-041>043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-053.

&&

PRB/ABJ

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