Gale Warning 53, NWS Juneau, AK

205 
FZAK52 PAJK 191236
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-200100-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVELS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL REACH THE OUTER
GULF BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHWEST
CANADA. 

$$

PKZ041-200100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 17
FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-200100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
17 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING
TO 10 FT LATE. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-200100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO
55 KT. SEAS 16 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-200100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-200100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
303 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW THAT CREATED SOME HIGH WINDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT HAS DEPARTED THE AREA TO THE WEST.
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE BUT IS GENERALLY ON THE DECREASE.
TO THE SOUTH, CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. IN THE MIDDLE, BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE RESULTED IN PERIODS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND THE ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE
LOW ARE THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THIS SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AS OF
THIS AFTERNOON, THE LOW WAS ANALYZED TO BE AROUND 987MB AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN MUCH MORE AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AS IT IS, THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE
FRONT PUSHES NORTH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 40 KT GALES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
THE AREA OF MAXIMUM WINDS MOVING NORTH WITH THE FRONT. HAVE A
STRONG WIND HEADLINE OUT FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST FOR LATER
THIS EVENING, BUT THOSE CONDITIONS WILL EASE LATE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE OVER THE INNER CHANNELS,
THERE WILL BE TYPICAL RESPONSES TO A DEEP LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY GALES OVER CLARENCE STRAIT. EASTERLY OR
SOUTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE REMAINING SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. EASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER ICY STRAIT AND CROSS
SOUND. NORTHERLIES TO 20 KTS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.

THE LOW APPEARS TO BE FULLY OCCLUDED, SO HAVE USED CONVECTIVE
TERMINOLOGY TO CHARACTERIZE THE PRECIP. WATER VALOR IMAGERY IS
LOOKING FAIRLY ROBUST AND THERE IS A HINT OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN BLENDED TPW IMAGERY. AS A RESULT, HAVE
BOOSTED QPF AMOUNTS IN THIS SHORT TERM FORECAST. STILL NO HEAVY
PRECIP EXPECTED, THOUGH. GENERAL DEEP LAYER FLOW IS FROM THE
SOUTH, SO NEARLY ALL PLACES SHOULD SEE RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, WHERE SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PREVALENT ALL DAY. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HAINES AND SKAGWAY AREA TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER INCH
OR SO FOR TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DETECTED WITH THE FIRST LOW AND
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THE NEXT LOW HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE TO OUR
SOUTH EARLIER TODAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS VERY CLEARLY INDICATING
A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A RESULT. HAVE INCLUDED
TO LAND AREAS A A PORTION OF THE INNER CHANNELS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING AS WELL.

USED GFS22 FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE. POP AND QPF A BLEND OF GEM AND GFS22 WITH THE MODEL QPF
TRUNCATED. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON GFS MOS. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEK IS A REPEAT A THE PAST
DAYS WITH LOWS MOVING INTO THE AK GULF FROM THE SOUTH FOLLOWING A
NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY TRACK, WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF PRECIP AND ONCE AGAIN MAIN PTYPE FALLING AS RAIN
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

GALE FORCE LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING WHILE WEAKENING TO AN OPEN WAVE
TROUGH. WINDS OVER THE AK GULF DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL
STILL HAVE BARRIER JET ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY EVENING
FOR PKZ52. INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES PARALLEL. SHOWERS WILL BECOMES MORE
SCATTERED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THIS
DEPARTING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT LOW ADVANCING INTO THE AK GULF BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS NEXT LOW MOVES IN PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL FLIP AGAIN WITH INNER CHANNEL WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS TO AROUND 975 MB WITH OCCLUDED FRONT
CROSSING OVER THE PANHANDLE FORM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AK GULF WINDS PICKING UP TO MAX GALE FORCE OF 45 KTS LATE
IN THE NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND ALONG
THE PANHANDLE COAST. NOT EXPECTING GUSTS TO REACH 60 MPH DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER BEING FURTHER WEST. THIS SYSTEM MAY LINGER IN THE
AK GULF BIT LONGER WHILE WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS, BUT
NEW MODEL RUNS ARE STARTING TO SPEED UP ITS NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.

NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AND 1000-805 MB
THICKNESS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY RAIN EVEN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW NEARING FREEZING AT TIMES.

MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR
AND THE MULTIPLE WAVES ROTATING INTO THE REGION. BESIDES AN UPDATE
TO TUESDAY NIGHT USING THE 12Z GFS22 TO REPOSITION THE EXITING
LOW MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS STILL LINED UP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEW WPC WAS
MAINLY AN ECMWF ENSEMBLE BLEND AND STILL LINED UP WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS JUST ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY THE PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>035-053.

&&

FRITSCH/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU