Gale Warning 40, NWS Juneau, AK

436 
FZAK52 PAJK 150822 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1120 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-151400-
1120 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE WEST AND DISSIPATE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-151400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1120 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT LATE. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-151400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1120 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT 
LATE. S SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-151400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1120 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. 
.FRI...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-151400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1120 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-151400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1120 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL LATE. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. S SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

378 
FZAK52 PAJK 151232
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-160100-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY EVENING.
GALES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING. 

$$

PKZ041-160100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO
23 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE
MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-160100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO
21 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-160100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO
19 FT LATE. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-160100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-160100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO
16 FT LATE. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...A LOW VERY NEAR CROSS SOUND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO ROTATE BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
APART FROM SOME SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE HYDER AREA EARLIER
TODAY, ALL OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
AS THE LOW DISSIPATES, THE WARMER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL WEAKEN AS
WELL AND BOTH THE LOWS TONIGHT AND THE HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT OR TODAY. EXPECTATIONS
IT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DRY UP BEFORE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING
SO NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHWAYS NEAR THE BORDER.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND THE
DIMINISHING POP WITH THE CLEARING PROGRESSING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME SUNSHINE, TOMORROW'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT BETWEEN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DUE TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS AT 850MB.

WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BEGIN INCREASING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT SEAS
WILL NEVER COMPLETELY ABATE TONIGHT BEFORE SMALL CRAFT WINDS
RETURN TO THE EASTERN GULF. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF CAPE EDGECUMBE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS OFFSHORE ZONE 310.

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT RANGE BETTER THAN AVERAGE. UPDATED
THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF GFS22 AND NAM12 FOR
PRESSURE AND WIND DIRECTION. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE GULF ARE A
MODIFIED NAM FIELD. POP AND QPF FROM GFS22 AND GEM. TEMPS ADJUSTED
USING GFS MOS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...UPPER TROUGH/LOW EXTENDING SSE FROM THE BERING SEA
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED IN ONE SENSE OR
ANOTHER THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING NWD AROUND THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...THE FIRST TWO OF WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE PANHANDLE AND GULF THIS WEEKEND.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE REGION ON SAT...SPREADING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW INLAND.
THEREAFTER...A COMPACT...POTENTIALLY POTENT...SURFACE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SERN GULF SUN EVENING...AND THEN ROTATE
WNW ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE 18Z GFS DETACHES
THIS LOW FROM THE PRIMARY TROUGH TO THE W...WHICH CAUSES IT TO
PROGRESS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THUS...HAVE
DISCOUNTED THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER ATTM. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
IMPACT WITH THE LOW ON SUN...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE CNTRL/NRN INNER CHANNELS...AND SELY GALES OVER THE FAR
SRN INNER CHANNELS. STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE FOR
AKZ018...AKZ027...AKZ028...AND POSSIBLY AKZ023 AND 025.

INHERITED PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NUDGED TO THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF THROUGH
SUN. THIS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE GALE FORCE FRONT ON
SAT...AND INTRODUCED PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW ON SUN/MON. WPC WAS
THEN USED FOR PRESSURE GRID UPDATES AFTER THE WEEKEND. REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH AN ENSEMBLE
BLEND...WITH QPF VALUES DRASTICALLY TRUNCATED TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD/FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033-034-036-043-051-052.

&&

FRITSCH/GARNER

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