Gale Warning 369, NWS Juneau, AK

380 
FZAK52 PAJK 250013
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
313 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-251815-
313 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
SUNDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-251815-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
313 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. W
SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-251815-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
313 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL
EARLY IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-251815-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
313 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-251815-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
313 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-251815-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
313 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING
TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Juneau AK
352 PM AKST Fri Dec 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...High pressure has moved over the AK gulf as a low
pressure system previously in the southern gulf moves toward the
Washington coast. There is a weak wave riding over the ridge tonight
that will move in some cloud cover and isolated snow showers to
Yakutat, but little in the way of accumulation is expected. Pressure
gradient between a developing pool of cold arctic air over the Yukon
and the departing low to the south increased northerly and outflow
winds over the inner channels. Land based areas, with the exception
of the far norther panhandle, have been light. N Lynn Canal winds
neared gale force at times today, but think with the current
gradient the winds will remain at small craft levels and even
diminish slightly tonight and then finally subside late Saturday
afternoon. Mostly clear skies continue through Saturday with a few
low clouds remaining. Kept fog potential in for tonight but with
dropping temperatures may see more areas frost out.

Main event is a strong front tracking into the central gulf
tonight and then moving into the eastern gulf through Saturday.
This front will not impact the panhandle until the start of the
long range but it will increase winds over the gulf to max small
craft level and nearing gales to the far western edge.

Used some high res NAM to refresh grids but overall changes were
minor. Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...All eyes are now on what will happen Christmas Day
into Monday. An impressive storm system will march east into the
eastern gulf through the weekend. Gale to storm force winds will
spread eastward into the gulf with high seas. Winds will begin
rising across the Panhandle along the coast Christmas Day and
spread inland and northward through Sunday night. At this point,
strong wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph appear likely from Sitka
southeast to Ketchikan. Strong wind gusts are not out of the
question for Yakutat and Pelican as well...and potentially for
Skagway late Monday from the south.

Precipitation will begin as snow for all portions of the Panhandle
but given mixing with winds and a warmer conveyor belt moving
eastward from the gulf into Sunday night, confidence has increased
in a changeover to rain across the central Panhandle including as
far north as Juneau by Monday.

Models have distanced themselves from the idea and/or timing of a
wave feature along the southern end of the front around Dixon
Entrance, and therefore, they have increased QPF across the
northern Panhandle, as far north as the northern Inner Channels.
This expands our concern to Haines and Skagway as they will remain
all snow for the longest duration. Seven hundred mb flow is
conspicuously south and not southwest at this time, limiting any
snow shadowing from the Chilkat Range. However, even they are
susceptible to a rain change late Monday, although we left them
all snow at the moment. Should the idea of a wave reform along the
southern boundary, these heavier amounts will not pan out.
Southern areas still have the not unreasonable scenario of mixing
the cold air out so early that snowfall totals are negligible
Christmas Day and favor a changeover to rain as the first round of
leftovers are being served at dinnertime. Thus, we have elected to
re-issue the Special Weather Statement and directed readers to
check their local forecast for specifics as timing is complicated
and depends on geography. Snow totals with this system could amount
to 1-2 inches or less along the coast to 1 to 4 for the Southern
Inner Channels to 2 to 8 inches across the central Panhandle, and 3
to 12 inches for the far northern Panhandle.
Hyder could see more than a foot.

Given a trend in warmer marine air, we spread rain a little into
Tuesday. As another system potentially exits to the southeast by
the end of next week, rain and snow chances diminish into the end
of next week.

If confidence increases in the higher ranges of snowfall, watches
may be issued. Check your specific forecast regularly this holiday
weekend for changes and to gauge specific impacts to you.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041-042.
&&

PRB/JWA

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