Gale Warning 368, NWS Juneau, AK

094 
FZAK52 PAJK 221247
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-230100-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 992 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN
INTO A COMPLEX LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF THU NIGHT. A BAND OF 
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL MOVE TO THE OUTER COAST THU AFTERNOON.  

$$

PKZ041-230100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. W
SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-230100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. W
SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-230100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-230100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-230100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
824 AM AKST Wed Dec 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...Active weather continues for Southeast Alaska
through Wednesday night. Multiple impulses will cross the region
today leading to continued cloudy skies and high POPs. However,
winds will be on the diminishing trend through the day as the
pressure gradient weakens over the area. Shower activity by this
evening will lessen noticeably over the southern panhandle with
some breaks in the cloud cover possible. Weakening southerly winds
combined with weak CAA aloft will bring snow levels down to sea
level for most areas by tonight. Snow accumulation with these
showers is expected to generally range between 1 to 2 inches. The
exception again will be in the far northern panhandle and higher
elevations.

12z NAM and hi-res guidance were used for updates to the next 24
hours.

.LONG TERM...Low pressure moves east over the northern gulf
into Thursday and then southeast past the panhandle during
Friday. The low keeps spinning showers towards the southeast
panhandle. With the low moving southward, precipitation will
taper off from the north Friday and Saturday. Precipitation type
has been an issue especially along the coastal region. This will
continue to remain so as temperatures slowly cool a degree or two
a day overall into the weekend.

Friday to Saturday will see a surface ridge build over the gulf
and pass through the panhandle by Saturday evening. A front then looks
to cross the gulf this weekend. With the parent low staying over
the Bering Sea, the operational GFS and ECMWF are handling remains
of a front somewhat differently as it moves into Southeast
Alaska. Therein lies the key between precipitation or a dry
holiday weekend.

Long rang portion of the forecast appears to head back to a more
active pattern again for early next week. Confidence is average to
start with and lowering slightly as the weather pattern re-
energizes after Saturday.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-031-034-041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ051>053.
&&

TPS/Bezenek

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