Gale Warning 360, NWS Juneau, AK

703 
FZAK51 PAJK 151327 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
427 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-160400-
427 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE YUKON TODAY
CAUSING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCAL FREEZING SPRAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS THU NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
FRI. OUTLOOK...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.  

$$

PKZ011-160400-
GLACIER BAY-
427 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-160400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
427 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 45 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.FRI...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-160400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
427 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-160400-
ICY STRAIT-
427 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-160400-
CROSS SOUND-
427 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

UPDATED

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL LATE. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-160400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
427 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-160400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
427 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

UPDATED

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-160400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
427 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-160400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
427 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-160400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
427 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

UPDATED

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 45 KT
EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-160400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
427 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 



$$

175 
FZAK51 PAJK 151821 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
921 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-160200-
921 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE YUKON TODAY
CAUSING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCAL FREEZING SPRAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS THU NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
FRI. OUTLOOK...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.  

$$

PKZ011-160200-
GLACIER BAY-
921 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-160200-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
921 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 45 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.FRI...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-160200-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
921 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-160200-
ICY STRAIT-
921 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-160200-
CROSS SOUND-
921 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL LATE. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-160200-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
921 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF TAKU INLET. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-160200-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
921 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-160200-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
921 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-160200-
FREDERICK SOUND-
921 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-160200-
SUMNER STRAIT-
921 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 45 KT
EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-160200-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
921 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 PM AKST Wed Dec 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...Weak upper trough moving SE through the panhandle
brought some flurries (and sprinkles for the outer coast) and
increased cloud cover last night and today. That feature is
currently on its way out and behind it another shot of cold air is
settling into the southern Yukon. Clouds are rapidly clearing out
in the northern panhandle this afternoon and northerly outflow
winds are increasing. Skagway is already gusting to 34 kt as of 1
pm and Point Bishop is reading gusts to 36 kt out of Taku Inlet.

For tonight and tomorrow, upper trough will continue to make its
way to the SE this evening taking any leftover showers and clouds
with it. Behind it, skies will clear and outflow winds will
increase this evening. Expecting gale force winds for northern
Lynn Canal tonight with several areas of the northern inner
channels seeing 25 to 30 kt winds. Skagway and the Klondike
Highway in particular will see gusts to 40 or 45 mph tonight due
to the cold air spilling over the pass and the pressure gradient.
Strong wind headline out as a result. The cold temperatures at
White Pass will also cause wind chills to plummet to 30 or 35
below zero tonight and early tomorrow so kept the wind chill
advisory up for that area until noon tomorrow. Winds will begin to
decrease tomorrow as this shot of cold air moves off to the east
and pressure gradients start to relax again.

The clearing skies will also promote radiational cooling around
the area so temperatures will again be rather cold tonight
especially in wind sheltered areas. Some areas of the northern
panhandle will see single digit above or below zero tonight as a
result while teens and 20s prevail for the rest of the panhandle.
Temperatures will increase again tomorrow but whether you are in a
wind sheltered area or not will determine how warm you get. Areas
that don't see much wind will not likely get out of the teens
tomorrow afternoon as there is not enough mixing to get the warmer
temps aloft to the surface.

Most adjustments today were due to local effect for temperature
and wind. Short range models were not bringing the clouds and
some of the precip far enough inland with the current trough so
had to manually drag some of that inland for this evening. Used
mostly NAM and ECMWF for overall guidance today.

.LONG TERM...Pattern change is still looking good for the weekend
and early next week. The blocky ridge that has kept area cold will
break down as several systems move into the gulf during late week
into early next week. This will allow warmer air to move into the
area and more of the precip coming in will be rain. Models are
still working out the details of the individual systems but the
large scale pattern transition is being handled fairly well.

First system will move in for late Thu night and Fri. Some light
snow is expected as weak overrunning develops ahead of the main
vort max moving through the area. Not seeing a lot of snow from
this as 850-700 mb flow remains somewhat westerly and shortwave
aloft is weak. May get an inch or two at most it appears through
daytime Fri.

Stronger system will move in for later Fri night and Sat. This
system will bring more widespread precip and warmer temps NE into
the area. Think much of the precip will begin as snow, but
transition to rain over the outer coast and much of the southern
area. Better onshore flow at 850-700 mb will increase snowfall
potential over the NE part of the area. Still some model details
to work out on how strong the shortwave with this system will be
though, so too early to tell how much snow will fall.

By Sun, area will be in a strong SW flow as large scale upper trof
moves toward the area. Models differ on track of main surface low
but all agree a wet and mild airmass will be moving in. Did
raise temps some for Sun into early next week to handle this
warmer airmass and more of the precip should be rain. Also, should
see more wind with this system and ended up boosting winds some
Sun into early next week. Model differences increase toward
midweek as it appears a more zonal flow will develop by then, as
models often struggle with individual systems in zonal flow.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through Thursday morning for AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory until noon AKST Thursday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-022-031.
&&

EAL/RWT

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