Gale Warning 36, NWS Juneau, AK

793 
FZAK51 PAJK 110425 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
725 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-111515-
725 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE BY MON. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF FROM THE S MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-111515-
GLACIER BAY-
725 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-111515-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
725 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-111515-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
725 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-111515-
ICY STRAIT-
725 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-111515-
CROSS SOUND-
725 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-111515-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
725 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT E WIND 20 KT BACKSIDE OF
DOUGLAS ISLAND. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN LATE.
.MON...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-111515-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
725 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-111515-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
725 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. HIGHER WINDS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCE. SEAS
5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCE.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-111515-
FREDERICK SOUND-
725 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. STRONGEST WINDS E HALF.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. STRONGEST WINDS E HALF. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-111515-
SUMNER STRAIT-
725 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCE. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCE. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-111515-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
725 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

974 
FZAK51 PAJK 111236
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-120100-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE MON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MON EVENING. A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE
N INTO THE EASTERN GULF FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. 

$$

PKZ011-120100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016 

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-120100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT EARLY...BECOMING N...THEN INCREASING TO 25 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-120100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT EARLY...BECOMING N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-120100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-120100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-120100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-120100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT EARLY...BECOMING N AND INCREASING TO 25 KT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-120100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCE...SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 
5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCE. SE SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-120100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-120100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-120100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...RATHER QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE
GALE FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF REMAINS MOSTLY OFFSHORE. THERE
ARE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS AT THE MOMENT DUE
TO A LINGERING PIECE OF SAT'S FRONT STILL HANGING AROUND THAT
AREA, BUT RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT. OTHERWISE CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE THE RULE OF THE DAY. WINDS ARE LESS THEN 15
KT FOR MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS, HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND THE OUTER COAST HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT TODAY.

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST REMAINS THE GALE FORCE
FRONT THAT LIES DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF TODAY.
THE CENTRAL GULF HAS ALREADY SEEN GALE FORCE WINDS AND THE WINDS
IN THE NORTHERN GULF ARE RISING. THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS
FRONT IS RATHER SLOW WITH STEERING FLOW MAINLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. HOWEVER SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE FRONT ON
SATELLITE IMAGES AND IT WILL BE THESE FEATURES THAT SLOWLY NUDGE
THE FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY. FRONTAL PRECIP BANDS WILL
BE STARTING TO AFFECT THE OUTER COAST THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST
SUCH SHORT WAVE PUSHES THE FRONT EAST. PRECIP WILL REACH AS FAR
EAST AS JUNEAU, ANGOON, KAKE, AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN BRIEFLY STALL ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS
BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE STARTS IT UP AGAIN MON AFTERNOON WITH
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE GETTING INTO THE RAIN BY THEN.

P-TYPE WILL MAINLY BE TRICKY FOR THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS
AND HYDER WITH TEMPERATURES STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THOSE
AREAS. FOR THE HIGHWAYS, HIGHEST PRECIP RATES WILL BE EARLY MON
INTO MON AFTERNOON, BUT SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIMITED BY HOW MUCH
MAKES IT OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGES TO THE SOUTH AND HOW WARM TEMPS
GET. CURRENT THINKING HAS AROUND 2 INCHES FOR TONIGHT AND 2 TO 4
INCHES FOR TOMORROW ALONG THE HIGHWAYS. HYDER WILL LIKELY NOT
RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW AS THE PRECIP DOES NOT REACH THAT
AREA UNTIL LATE MON AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE RAIN
AT SEA LEVEL WILL BE THE MAIN NEWS WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING.

WINDS AND SEAS IN THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY BE DECREASING AS THE
FRONT MOVES INLAND. ONLY A SMALL BAND OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS SHOULD
BE LEFT BY MON AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN GULF. FOR THE PANHANDLE,
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COAST LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS. WIND
DIRECTION IN THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS WAS TRICKY AS I HAD SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING S WIND TOMORROW AS SYNOPTIC FLOW OVERTAKES THE
NORTHERNLY PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHILE OTHERS KEEP A NORTH WIND WITH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATE. DECIDED TO KEEP THE NORTHERLY
WINDS THAT WE HAVE IN THERE AT THE MOMENT AS I THINK THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD RETAIN ITS STRENGTH INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BUT THE GFS DID NOT
INITIALIZE THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ALONG THE FRONT VERY WELL. NAM AND
ECMWF HAD A BETTER FIT SO DECIDED TO HEAD IN THAT DIRECTION FOR
ANY UPDATES TODAY. OVERALL NOT MANY CHANGES OVER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY EVENING THE FRONT DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL STILL
BE OVER THE PANHANDLE CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOME SNOW CLOSER
TO THE CANADIAN BORDERS (1-3 INCHES OVERNIGHT). THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH PRECIP BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT
AND TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THIS IS DUE TO A NEW LOW APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
WINDS TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHER/CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND A
SHORT BREAK IN THE RAINFALL. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD BANDS
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND N-NELY WINDS WILL
SHIFT SELY FOR A PERIOD. MODELS HAVE PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES ON
PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NE GULF...SO TIMING OF
THE WIND SHIFT MAY CHANGE.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WE LIE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. DURING THIS BREAK TEMPERATURES START TO COOL
OFF...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND -6C OVER
JUNEAU FRIDAY THEN CONTINUE TO FALL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND MEANING
GREATER CHANCES FOR SNOW RATHER THAN RAIN. A WEAK BAND OF PRECIP
MAY CROSS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT MODELS ARE LOOKING DRYER.
PRECIP WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY BUT WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES NORTH DUE TO
ANOTHER LOW FOLLOWING IN ITS PATH. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR UPDATES TODAY DUE TO MODEL SPREAD
FROM RUN TO RUN. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033>035-053.

&&

EAL/FERRIN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU