Gale Warning 324, NWS Juneau, AK

238 
FZAK52 PAJK 290002
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
302 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-291815-
302 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SW MONDAY NIGHT AND INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT TUESDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-291815-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
302 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING SE 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL
IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SW LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SEAS 26 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT. 
.FRI...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-291815-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
302 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING SE 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 70 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING
TO 14 FT IN THE EVENING...THEN BUILDING TO 18 FT LATE. W SWELL IN
THE EVENING. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-291815-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
302 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 70 KT.
SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE EVENING...THEN BUILDING TO
17 FT LATE. W SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 LATE. SEAS 26 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-291815-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
302 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING E 45 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 70 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN LATE.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING W LATE.
SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO
24 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-291815-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
302 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SW
SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN LATE.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING W LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
427 PM AKST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...An elongated area of low pressure over the eastern
gulf is expected to split into two lows as it moves inland over
the panhandle through early Monday morning. The northern low looks
to move inland near Yakutat while the southern one crosses over
POW island and Dixon entrance. Keeping the northern low in tact
was an adjustment to the inherited forecast and thus affected the
wind field. When the low moves inland Monday morning expect a wind
shift to the west along the outer coast and a southerly push
through the central inner channels. Cross Sound and N. Lynn Canal
can expect a burst of 30kt winds while the other inside marine
areas will see 20-25kt winds.

Showers will be most persistent near the low centers tonight.
Then early Monday morning a more pronounced frontal band looks to
form, extending south along the coast from the northern low near
Yakutat. This band will be just ahead of the wind shift and with cold
air behind it. Have extended the slight chance of thunderstorms
over the gulf through tonight, then along the outer coast with the
frontal band Monday morning. Showers scatter out fairly early on
post front with sunny breaks expected in the afternoon.

Used mainly the NAM for adjustments to the forecast today.
Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...Active pattern will be the rule into late week. A strong
low will move NE into the gulf Tue, then should come onshore
around Yakutat Bay Tue night. A warm front will move to the NE
gulf Tue morning, with a cold front moving across the area Tue
afternoon and evening. Looks like another low and front will move
into the gulf for Wed night and Thu, but models differ on strength
of the system. System activity looks like it will decrease over
the weekend and early next week, with a colder pattern possibly
developing by early next week.

Big concern is with the Tue system as it will be very dynamic.
Looking like storm force winds will occur ahead of both fronts and
on S side of the low as it wraps up. Low level jet forecast at 925
mb reaches 65-75 KT in these areas. Expecting most land areas to
see strong to very strong winds as well, with strongest winds
along the outer coast. Have issued a high wind watch for zones 23
and 27 for Tue. Many other areas will need strong wind headlines
Tue with winds gusting to 45-55 mph. Later shifts will need to
monitor for possible high winds over the central and southern
inner channel zones Tue as well if system ends up even slightly
stronger than current forecast has it.

Am expecting fairly heavy precip with this system as well. While
most of the area should be warm enough for rain, the far N will
likely see snow with temps hovering near freezing later Mon night
and most of Tue. Snowfall of up to 18 inches is possible for zones
18 and 19 by late Tue afternoon before warmer air moves in and
changes them over to rain. Have issued winter storm watch for
zones 18 and 19 for late Mon night through Tue afternoon. Think
the highest amounts will be near the Canadian border. Elsewhere,
rainfall could reach 3 inches by late Tue afternoon.

Later in the week, still looks wet and mild especially with system
coming in Wed night and Thu. May have another round of fairly
strong winds over the gulf, but not as strong as the Tue system.

For the weekend and early next week, beginning to look like colder
air will move in especially early next week. Later shifts may need
to adjust temps downward especially Sun through Tue.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for AKZ023-027.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
     afternoon for AKZ018-019.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>033-036-042-043-
     051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.
&&

Ferrin/RWT

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