Gale Warning 322, NWS Juneau, AK

392 
FZAK51 PAJK 271256
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
356 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-280330-
356 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW MONDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-280330-
GLACIER BAY-
356 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-280330-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
356 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-280330-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
356 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-280330-
ICY STRAIT-
356 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-280330-
CROSS SOUND-
356 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. S
SWELL. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING
TO 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO
13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-280330-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
356 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-280330-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
356 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-280330-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
356 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT
17 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 17 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT...
EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-280330-
FREDERICK SOUND-
356 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING
TO 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-280330-
SUMNER STRAIT-
356 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT
10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-280330-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
356 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT
8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
601 AM AKST Sat Nov 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...A weak frontal boundary along the outer coast will
gradually dissipate as it pushes inland this morning.
Precip has been focused along the outer coast and the northern
half of the panhandle. Ptype has mainly been liquid with the
exception of the far northern panhandle where snow showers have
been reported in Skagway and Haines overnight. A period of light
freezing rain has occurred overnight in the back of the Mendenhall
Valley which has created a glaze on exposed surfaces. Expect
temperatures to warm a few degrees and precip to diminish through
the morning which will inhibit further ice accretion. An
additional 1 to 2 inches of snow is likely over the far northern
panhandle through the day with some enhanced lift later this
morning associated with the decaying front as it pushes inland.
Southerly winds will continue to progress northward through the
morning, reaching Lynn Canal by the afternoon which will help to
warm temperatures.

The more significant feature in the short range will be a gale
force low quickly moving into the north central gulf by late
tonight. A 160-170 kt westerly jet will provide ample upper level
support and also contribute to the fast moving nature of this
system. The associated front with this system will reach the outer
coast by late tonight. Gale force southeasterly winds are expected
with the front. Additionally, behind the front gale force
westerlies will develop on the south side of the low in the south
central gulf tonight. Increased southerly flow will promote
further warming throughout the entire panhandle. One of the
biggest forecast challenges was ptype in the northern panhandle
tonight. Based upon expected shift to southerly low level flow
have most areas at sea level as all liquid. Therefore, there is
less snow in this forecast package than the previous forecast.
Snow levels will remain around 500 feet so accumulating snow is
expected on the highways with the highest amounts of around 3
inches on the Haines highway. Did consider higher snowfall amounts
for the Haines highway, but think southerly flow over the Chilkat
Range will help to limit higher precip amounts on the leeside.
Gusty winds will develop along the outer coast and spread into the
inner channels by late tonight with small craft conditions over a
lot of the inside marine areas. A marginal thunderstorm threat
exists as cold air aloft spreads over the gulf late tonight so
have included a slight chance of thunder.

Used the 06z NAM along with hi-res guidance for updates to the
previous forecast.

.LONG TERM...Showers Sunday tapering off through Monday as the
remains of the upper level trough moves across the panhandle.
Winds increase behind the trough increasing to the 30 to 35 kt
range for the outer coastal zones. Most of the panhandle should
see rain showers, with more of mix or snow in the cooler valleys
or further north.

Tuesday looks to be the biggest issue that I worked on today.
Model consensus took large step forward with a lower 960s mb low
developing and moving northeast and then inland between Cross
Sound and Yakutat. I expect heavier rains with rainfalls of 1 to
3 inches with the system. Strong winds 30 to 40 mph are likely in
the panhandle and for coastal sites mid to top level Gale force
winds. Seas of 20 to 25 feet will be associated with the system.
The other issue is amount of colder air in the northern Lynn
Canal and aloft as the frontal moisture moves through. A
significant snowfall is a possibility for near the border and at
White Pass.

Issued a Special weather Statement to let everyone know about the
potential issues forth coming. Later forecasts will refine the
strength and timing of feature and may even alter the track.

Extended forecast was left alone, for the day shift to take a
look at when they get a new set of extended model information.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.
&&

TPS/Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
909 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
11/26/2016  M7.4 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER IN HAINES MEASURED A 24 HOUR TOTAL OF 7.4
            INCHES AS OF 8 AM SATURDAY.

0900 AM     SNOW             6 S HAINES              59.15N 135.44W
11/26/2016  E6.0 INCH        PKZ012             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ESTIMATED 6 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT NEAR MUD
            BAY.

&&

DEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1026 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     HEAVY SNOW       8 S HAINES              59.12N 135.44W
11/26/2016  M13.0 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER MEASURED A 24 HOUR TOTAL OF 13.0 INCHES AS OF
            1015 AM SATURDAY.

&&

DEL