Gale Warning 319, NWS Juneau, AK

014 
FZAK52 PAJK 240021
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-241830-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE N OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED
EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS E ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN GULF TOWARD HAIDA GWAII BY WED NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO
DRIFT SE THU AND THU NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-241830-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-241830-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-241830-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-241830-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT. SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING TO
18 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-241830-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
S SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT. SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING TO
17 FT. 

$$

105 
FZAK52 PAJK 241235
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-250100-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SW OF HAIDA GWAII WILL DRIFT SE THU AND
THU NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE E INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FRI. 

$$

PKZ041-250100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-250100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-250100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-250100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING LATE. SW SWELL.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT
BUILDING TO 25 FT. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. SEAS 25 FT
SUBSIDING TO 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-250100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING
IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. SEAS 25 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1016 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery this afternoon showing two
surface lows under a broad upper level low over the AK gulf. One
low in the western gulf will continue to progress westward while
weakening. The second low, off the coast of Haida Gwaii, will
show some eastward progression, but mainly weaken in place. For
Wednesday another surface low drops in from the western gulf on a
southeasterly track heading again for the Haida Gwaii coast.

Frontal band tracked over the panhandle overnight with mid level
short waves continuing to move northward behind the main front.
Warming trend began after frontal passage with some sharp
increases in temperatures. Yakutat airport had an 18 degree rise
when the front moved over, winds shifted to the southeast and
increased. Expect the general warming trend to continue with many
locations overnight temps remaining steady or showing a slight
increase. While northerly and outflow winds will diminish as the
low to the south weakens these may still be enough for some temps
to show little rise.

Snow showers for locations north of Frederick Sound today
produced low visibilities but not much accumulations. Amounts
ranged from 1 to almost 2 inches with very fine light snow grains.
Locations to the south where temps warmed to the 40s reported only
rain showers. As the next bands associated with the advancing mid
level short waves move over this evening expect more rain to begin
to mix in with the scattered snow showers. At most only another
inch of snow accumulation is expected.

Gulf winds will remain at small craft levels under low level 850
mb jet along the coast. Inside water wind lull begins the
afternoon but as next surface low moves in pressure gradient
increases with northerly small craft winds developing for most of
the inner channels Wednesday.

Models in good agreement for synoptic pattern. NAM was tracking
the short waves fairly well, but none of the higher res models
initialized winds accurately today. Overall left forecast as is
with a slight adjustment with NAM on outside waters. Forecast
confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...While a low rests south of the Panhandle Wednesday
night and Thursday, a related front may quickly swing up from
Dixon Entrance Wednesday to allow some wind to develop across
Prince of Wales Island. Ordinarily a low to the south means drier
weather for points north of Frederick Sound. Currently, we have
kept the scattered snow/rain showers here, as a consensus has not
been reached on how dry things will become. We also added some fog
as gradients should begin to fall through Thursday morning,
especially for the central Panhandle. If stronger offshore flow
does develop we look for skies to begin to clear.

The main changes to the long-range forecast were reserved for the
weekend into next week. Models have come together fairly nicely in
representing a front moving into the eastern gulf. Thus we have
increased winds and seas...especially for Sunday as westerlies
behind the front will reach gale force in the central gulf waters.
Likewise, with increasing southerlies associated with a low level
jet ahead of the system, we raised temperatures Saturday night
into early next week in order to mix rain with the snow or to
allow an all-out transition in some areas. Currently, models are
not signaling a high confidence rain event as snow levels will be
around 1000 feet across the central Panhandle, give or take a 1000
feet on each end, but we at least wanted to hedge. Still there is
the possibility of advisory level snow amounts Sunday morning
before precipitation potentially mixes with or changes to rain.

We used NAM Wednesday night into Thursday before transitioning to
GFS/EC/WPC into the weekend. WPC used for next week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.
&&

PRB/JWA

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau