Gale Warning 309, NWS Juneau, AK

975 
FZAK52 PAJK 140022
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
322 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-141830-
322 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

PKZ041-141830-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
322 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-141830-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
322 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS 
LATE.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-141830-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
322 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-141830-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
322 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL LATE.
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-141830-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
322 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS EARLY IN
THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
355 PM AKST Sat Nov 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...Multiple fronts within the short term forecast
period. Satellite images are showing an extensive but fairly thin
overcast layer associated with an approaching front. The radar was
out of service for much of the day, but afternoon radar data is
showing a shift from southerly to southeasterly flow. Some
convective cells are still apparent and isolated lightning strikes
are occurring over the northeast gulf from west of Icy Bay to
near Cape Spencer. These strikes are well within the frontal cloud
shield, but there is obviously some embedded convection left over
from yesterday. Still, the radar is beginning to fill in with
stratiform reflectivity and the stabilization process is expected
to complete prior to this evening. Have therefore not included
thunderstorms in the forecast for the northeast gulf this evening.
Farther south, the transition back to a convective environment is
expected sooner, so have included thunderstorms over the southern
coastal marine zone later tonight. A rapid transition back to
stratiform is forecast late tonight in advance of front number
two, which is currently entering the south central gulf. This
front is associated with a low that appears to have developed from
a wave rather than as a triple point feature and is tracking north
rapidly. The low itself will remain over the gulf tomorrow, but
the front will cause a wind shift to the SSW with diminishing
wind speeds earlier than initially expected. This would reflect
the biggest change to the forecast since last night.

Before the second front arrives over the panhandle, still think
low end strong wind gusts are likely for the southern outer coast
and southern inner channels. Look for those winds to increase
early this evening and then diminish abruptly early tomorrow
morning when winds shift southwest.

Updated PoP using a blend of SREF, Canadian NH, and NAMDNG5. QPF
from NAMDNG5. No changes to pressure or winds until Sunday
afternoon, where a blend of GFS and NAM was used. Overall forecast
confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...The active weather pattern that has been affecting
the panhandle region will be transitioning to a quieter one over
the early part of next week. The upper level jet stream that
steers the storms will by Wed evening moving systems onshore North
America along northern California which will leave a much quieter
farther north. The flow pattern over Alaska, the gulf and
Northwest Canada is expected to be light.

As the low slowly weakens and drifts east-southeast in the gulf,
a series of troughs and vorticity lobes continues to rotate about
and lifting into the panhandle. Behind the two front mentioned in
the short term, an slightly organized band of showers near the
Eastern Aleutians Saturday, will have rotated about the base and
into the eastern gulf/panhandle region Monday evening. Model
solutions have a general agreement on the feature, however there
is a few small differences on the placement as it could impact the
north central gulf or Baranof and Chichagof Islands. Model
solution that was preferred base on the morning initialization,
was taking the eastern solution.

The large low when it weakens and drifts east-southeast will
leave an overall weak low surface pattern in the gulf and higher
pressure over northwest Canada. Thus there is a weak offshore flow
pattern that will lead to a slow cool down around mid week
especially for the northern panhandle. I didn't change the
temperature much in the longer range however did end up bumping up
the low temperatures just a few degrees in the northern part
Sunday night to Tuesday night due to clouds and precipitation.

Showers will be slowly dissipating becoming more scattered to
isolated to scattered levels more for the southern panhandle
towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Some LLWS and turbulence tonight associated with a
60-65 kt low level southeasterly jet that will move over the
panhandle laster tonight and then shift north through Sunday. MVMC
conditions due to CIGS and reduced visibility in heavier
precipitation will prevail through the next 24 hours. No
significant fog is expected overnight tonight.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>035.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.
&&

Fritsch/Bezenek

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