Gale Warning 289, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Nov 6, 2016, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Nov 6, 2016, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

403 
FZAK51 PAJK 061238
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-070100-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
SEND A WEATHER FRONT NORTHWARD OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING.  

$$

PKZ011-070100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016 

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN LATE.
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-070100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING
TO 5 FT. RAIN LATE.
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-070100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN
BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING
TO 5 FT. RAIN LATE.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-070100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE IN THE EVENING.
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN LATE.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-070100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016 

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-070100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN LATE.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-070100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN LATE.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-070100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT
12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT
15 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-070100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016 

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING
TO 7 FT. RAIN LATE.
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-070100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016 

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN LATE.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT
9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-070100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016 

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. GUSTS
TO 60 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 5, 1:46 PM AKDT, 15 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
146 PM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Major upper low center near 50N 160W with -28C at 500
HPa but the main cold air aloft is over PAKN around -36C which is
truly winter. 250 HPa analysis shows quite the jetsteam across
the Pacific to add a lot of energy for development at the end of
the short term period. A mondo storm went ashore near Cape Spencer
last night after blasting SE with lots of wind and lightning. That
system has since died in the Yukon someplace.

&&

.SHORT TERM...look for some minor ridging inland tonight which
pretty well sets up calm wind and lots of fog. There might be a
few light showers in the evening, but the big emphasis will be fog
that scours out later Sunday morning. Not to steal the thunder
from the Long-Term (pun intended) but there will be a nasty system
come up from the SSW as per a model blend of the 05/12 NAM and
ECMWF. Got some gale force already later on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...A 120+ kt upper jet is forecast to round through the
base of a trough extending south from interior AK across the WRN
Gulf during Sunday night. Model guidance shows the exit region of
the jet spreading toward Haida Gwaii, with strong upper-level
divergence developing over the SERN Gulf. This may yield the
occurrence of a sub-synoptic scale low (as depicted by the ECMWF) along
a front that will be in the process of pivoting NNW across the ERN
Gulf. If this subsidiary low develops, then ESELY hurricane force
winds may become embedded within a broader zone of storm force
winds. The NAM and GFS have trended away from that scenario at
this time, thus have left sustained speeds over portions of marine
zones 41-42 and 310 in the 45-60 kt range. In addition, a tight
E-W oriented surface pressure gradient will favor gusts near 60
mph over AKZ027, which are expected to develop Sunday evening and
last into part of Monday morning. This supports the continuation
of the high wind watch inherited from the midnight shift. For
AKZ028, the ELY component to low-level flow is forecast to produce
wind gusts below high wind criteria...thus the high wind watch was
dropped.

Strong destabilization is forecast to occur in the wake of the
previously mentioned front, as 500 mb temperatures from -26 to -28
C spread ENE across the gulf. This will support a slight chance of
thunderstorms that could persist through mid week. Otherwise,
large-scale troughing will continue over the gulf during the
remainder of the long term period, which will favor additional wet
and windy weather. The next in a series of surface cyclones will
impact the region WED and THU as a strong upper jet spreads NE
toward the panhandle, with a gale to possibly storm force occluded
front affecting the ERN gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR in fog will be widespread a few hours after
sunset. There is so much moisture plus breaks in the clouds and calm
wind that makes fog certain. Guessing breakout 18Z-ish Sunday but
stay tuned for better timing as we see how thick it gets.

&&

.MARINE...Outside there is an awful sea but laying down slowly.
Buoy 46084 is 15 FT at this writing. Inside calm wind and lots of
fog tonight into Sunday. Get ready for the next storm Sunday
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...All rivers and streams in good shape in spite some
recent rains that could not overcome the freezing levels and our
dry October.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night
     for AKZ027.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-036-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.
&&

JC/Garner

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Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every gale warning in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.