Gale Warning 286, NWS Juneau, AK

650 
FZAK52 PAJK 051930 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1130 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-061330-
1130 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 992 MB WILL MOVE OVER DIXON
ENTRANCE THIS EVENING AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. A SYSTEM WELL TO THE SW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO MAX
STORM FORCE 968 MB OFF DIXON ENTRANCE SUN NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-061330-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1130 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL IN
THE EVENING. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-061330-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1130 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. S SWELL.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 21 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-061330-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1130 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-061330-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1130 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-061330-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1130 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS
16 FT. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
342 PM AKDT Fri Nov 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...A large low pressure system extends across the NW
Pacific with its occluded front spanning up over SE Alaska. A new
low center developed at the triple point near Dixon Entrance and
has taken over as the storm force low we expected for today.
Currently the low is west of Baranof Island. Wind gusts of 60 mph
have been reported at Ketchikan and Metlakatla. The high wind
warning for the Southern Inner Channels and POW Island will expire
at 4pm, but wind gusts of 40-50mph will remain likely through the
night. Similar wind gusts can be expected over the central
panhandle as the low moves north tonight. Baranof Island, being
closest to the low centers will be just below warning criteria
with gusts to 55mph. The low center is expected to move inland
near Cross Sound early Saturday causing winds to shift to the
west. Have winds shifting from north to south through Lynn Canal,
typically when this happens there is a short spike in the
southerly winds. So kept a brief small craft southerly there
Saturday afternoon.

Rain has been moderate to heavy at times and has started
transitioning to showers over the southern outside waters and
southern panhandle this afternoon. Lightning has become active in
this area with strikes near Ketchikan and eastern POW Island, so
have gone with isolated thunderstorms through the evening. Showers
will continue through tomorrow but become more scattered through
the afternoon.

Temperatures have hovered around 30F at White Pass all day and
frontal precip started moving in this afternoon. Expect rates to
increase through the evening with 3-6 inches expected by morning.
A winter weather advisory has been issued for the Klondike Highway
above 2000 feet.

The current forecast was in good shape compared to latest models
so only minor adjustments for local effects and current conditions
were needed. For changes made used mainly the 12z GFS and hires
NAM. Forecast confidence above average.

.LONG TERM...A series of upper-level shortwave troughs are
forecast to dig SEWD from the Bering Sea to the SRN Gulf/NERN PAC
during the long term period, bringing multiple episodes of
hazardous weather to the AK panhandle. The first in the series of
troughs amplifies Sunday night, with a coupled jet structure
lifting NNE across the SERN Gulf and SRN panhandle. This will
cause a compact surface low and associated frontal boundary to
pivot NNW across the SRN Gulf, with gale to storm force ESELYS
developing over marine zones 41-43 and 310. Gusts to 60 mph will
also be possible for AKZ027...will continue to evaluate for a high
wind watch.

A large occluded cyclone is then forecast to progress NWD across
the gulf during WED/WED night, and will likely yield another
period of gale to storm force winds. After Thursday, model
predictability decreases with the placement and timing of
shortwave features. However, guidance indicates an active pattern
of wet and windy weather will continue for SERN AK and the Eastern
Gulf.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND through late tonight for AKZ026.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ027-028.
     STRONG WIND through late tonight for AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND from 7 PM AKDT this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ024-025.
     STRONG WIND from 7 PM AKDT this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ022.
     STRONG WIND through Saturday morning for AKZ023.
     STRONG WIND from 1 AM AKDT Saturday through late tonight for
     AKZ021.
     STRONG WIND until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ028.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-041>043.
     Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031>035.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-051.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ052-053.
&&

Ferrin/Garner

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1213 AM AKDT SAT NOV 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG METLAKATLA              55.12N 131.57W
11/04/2016                                      AK   POST OFFICE

            SIDING FROM THE SWIMMING POOL BUILDING BLOWN OFF DURING
            WINDSTORM

1025 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ANNETTE                 55.04N 131.59W
11/04/2016  M60.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

1212 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST KETCHIKAN               55.34N 131.65W
11/04/2016  M64.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

0100 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG KETCHIKAN               55.34N 131.65W
11/04/2016                                      AK   COAST GUARD

            SAILBOAT FROM KETCHIKAN BROKE FROM MOORING AND FLOATED
            DOWN TONGASS NARROWS

0426 PM     SNOW             40 W HAINES             59.24N 136.57W
11/04/2016  E1.0 INCH        XXX                XX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SNOWING AT HAINES CUSTOMS WITH 1 INCH ON GROUND. SNOW
            TOTAL SINCE 7 AM.

1107 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST SITKA                   57.05N 135.34W
11/04/2016  M60.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

            60 MPH GUST MEASURED AT SITKA ROCKY GUTIERREZ AIRPORT

&&

JWA