Gale Warning 282, NWS Juneau, AK

969 
FZAK51 PAJK 040846 AAC
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1245 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-041430-
1245 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEAKENING GALE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR
YAKUTAT BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM FORCE LOW WILL ENTER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON FRIDAY AND MOVE INLAND NORTH OF CAPE
EDGECUMBE ON SATURDAY.  

$$

PKZ011-041430-
GLACIER BAY-
1245 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-041430-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1245 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING 5 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO
6 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-041430-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1245 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6
FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-041430-
ICY STRAIT-
1245 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-041430-
CROSS SOUND-
1245 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 11
FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-041430-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1245 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-041430-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1245 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-041430-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1245 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT SHIFTING S AND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR THE OCEAN
ENTRANCE. SEAS 8 FT... EXCEPT 16 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 10 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-041430-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1245 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-041430-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1245 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4
FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT...EXCEPT
10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT...
EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-041430-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1245 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 7
FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT...EXCEPT 50 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 10 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE
TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
427 PM AKDT Thu Nov 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery is showing the storm force low
from earlier today over the northeastern gulf and tracking
northwest while weakening. Plenty of lightning has been observed
as well with some strikes occurring over the inner channels. As
this low continues off to the northwest while weakening, another
storm force low will approach from the south and follow a very
similar track. Morning and afternoon models differ on details of
the track, which can result in significant differences in the
resulting winds over the panhandle. As it is, 850 mb jet core in
excess of 80 kts suggests high winds will occur again tomorrow.
The current forecast reflects this and will result in another
high wind event for the southern outer coast and over the southern
inner channels. Additionally, storm force southerlies will
develop over Clarence Strait and the southern coastal marine zones by
tomorrow afternoon. Strong wind gusts to 40 mph also anticipated
for zone 26 and again in the downtown Juneau/Douglas area.

Rain/showers have been moderate to heavy at times through the day
today and more of the same is expected with the next low/front.
CAPE and LI values also indicating thunderstorms are once again
likely and have included this element in the forecast as well.
Temperatures on the Klondike and Haines Highways adjusted down
based on observations and now have snow in the forecast for both
roadways for tonight. Snow changing to a rain/snow mix on the
Haines Highway by tomorrow afternoon. Amounts below advisory
level.

Updates to pressure weighted in favor of 12Z GFS. Modifications
to winds based on upper level jet strength. No significant changes
to PoP or QPF. Changes to temperatures limited to the highways.
Overall forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...Storm force low discussed above is forecasted to
progress northward across the eastern gulf through Friday night
and be west of Sitka around midnight. Except showers to be
moderate to heavy at times into Saturday morning. Strong wind
gusts of 40-55mph will continue through the Friday night from
Ketchikan to Elfin Cove with strongest winds along the outer
coast. As the low moves to the north winds will shift to the SW
with similarly strong gusts for POW and Baranof Islands. Models
have differed quite a bit on low placement and even minor shifts
will result in different timing of wind shifts etc. Have gone with
an average of the ECMWF and GFS for this forecast package with an
emphasis on the 12z GFS. This slowed things down slightly and
moved the low center inland near Pelican Saturday morning. As the
low moves inland, N winds through the northern inner channels will
diminish then quickly increase out of the south Saturday
afternoon.

Through the next week the forecast continues to be very active
with multiple low centers following a similar path to the previous
ones. This will keep things on the warm side with rain likely
most days. Currently have another gale force system for Sunday
night and another Wednesday. Timing and details of each system
will be fine tuned each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Brief break in widespread LLWS and mod to severe
turbulence overnight, but conditions expected to deteriorate once
again tomorrow. Definitely not good flying weather.

&&

.MARINE...Areas of the eastern gulf will see winds 90 degrees off
the prevailing southerly swell train, so combined seas will not
be quite as steep-faced as today. Still, seas up to 28 feet have
been measured by buoy 46205 and prevailing swell period over the
gulf has been around 14 seconds. Little change change to the high
seas situation over the gulf during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     AKZ026.
     High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ027-028.
     STRONG WIND from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     AKZ025.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-041-042.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-033>035-043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-032-053.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ052.
&&

Fritsch/Ferrin

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau