Gale Warning 271, NWS Juneau, AK

425 
FZAK67 PAJK 121214
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-130100-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE
ON SATURDAY. A SECOND STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-130100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016 

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...A gale force low is closing in on Prince William
Sound as of this afternoon with high end small craft winds
persisting across the northeast gulf. These winds will relax
somewhat overnight, but then ramp up again to southeasterly gales
along the outer coast by tomorrow afternoon in advance of the next
front. Widespread showers continue over the panhandle with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the eastern gulf. Some of
these thunderstorms have penetrated inside as far as Point Gardner
and central Glacier Bay. have included thunderstorms for portions
of the inner channels this evening, but such activity will wind
down this evening. Thunderstorms over the gulf will also diminish,
and then end as the atmosphere begins to stabilize in advance of
the approaching front.

The transition from showers back to rain is more noticeably in
model data now, but the effect will be subtle, manifesting mostly
as a cessation of the periods of heavier precipitation and the
beginning of a steadier precip tomorrow afternoon. Exception will
be the Yakutat area where heavier showers will simply give way to
heavy rain.

Winter weather advisory was allowed to continue through the
afternoon and into the evening for the Klondike Highway. So far,
no reports of snow totals near white Pass. More snow in the
forecast for tonight and tomorrow, but accumulations expected to
be less than advisory levels.

The low level airmass is very warm, owing to the synoptic
circulation, with 5000 ft temperatures only slightly below
freezing. Given this as well as current dew points and observed
temps today, have raised overnight lows by a few degrees across
the panhandle. Biggest outcome of this was to remove snow from the
upper reaches of the Haines Highway. Am expecting a mix there
late tonight as a worst case with no accumulations forecast.

No changes to pressure grids with a few adjustments to wind
speeds. PoP updated using SREF and NAMDNG5. QPF from NAMDNG5,
Temperatures adjusted per GFS MOS. Overall forecast confidence is
average.

.LONG TERM...Active weather will continue through the first half
of next week as an upper trough persists over the eastern
Aleutians Islands/Bering Sea. This will keep SE AK under SWLY
upper level flow with a couple of gale force lows expected to
impact the region through mid next week.

The stronger of the systems will be exiting the region Saturday
night with a brief break heading into Sunday. Model solutions
coming into better agreement with the system Sun, but continue to
show medium spread in solutions. Wide spread SCA and gales are
expected over the Gulf and inside waters into Mon. Land areas will
experience strong wind gusts into Mon as well, especially along
the southern inner channels and outer coast. Kept mention of TSTMS
Sun-Mon as the upper low moves into the gulf and cold pool aloft
helps steepen lapse rates. Deep and warm southerly flow will
accompany these systems helping maintain ptype as rain except for
the higher elevations areas along the Haines and Klondike
highways. Model solutions continue to indicate drier and cooler
weather late next week as the storm track shifts S. Main change to
forecast was increasing detail in system late this weekend and to
lower Max/Min temps for the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...TSTM activity and LLWS remain a concern this evening
and PIREPS support inclusion in the Panhandle TAFS. Expect MOD
turbulence in the vicinity of TSTMS and LGT to MOD chop tonight
under a 30 to 40 kt southwesterly low level jet. Conditions
improving through the night, but MVFR due to CIGS will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022-023-025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ017-018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-051-053.
&&

Fritsch/BC

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