Gale Warning 252, NWS Juneau, AK

977 
FZAK52 PAJK 162302
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1229 PM AKDT SUN OCT 16 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-171430-
1229 PM AKDT SUN OCT 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-171430-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1229 PM AKDT SUN OCT 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-171430-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1229 PM AKDT SUN OCT 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-171430-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1229 PM AKDT SUN OCT 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT.
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-171430-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1229 PM AKDT SUN OCT 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-171430-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1229 PM AKDT SUN OCT 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

680 
FZAK52 PAJK 170100 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
500 PM AKDT SUN OCT 16 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-171430-
500 PM AKDT SUN OCT 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-171430-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
500 PM AKDT SUN OCT 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-171430-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
500 PM AKDT SUN OCT 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-171430-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
500 PM AKDT SUN OCT 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT.
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-171430-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
500 PM AKDT SUN OCT 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-171430-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
500 PM AKDT SUN OCT 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

337 
FZAK52 PAJK 171152
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-180100-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY
WHILE ITS PARENT LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN MONDAY
NIGHT. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ041-180100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING S 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-180100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-180100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-180100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-180100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

293 
FZAK52 PAJK 180008
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-181400-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE SW GULF TUE. A GALE FORCE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF TUE NIGHT...THEN REACH THE NE
GULF WED. 

$$

PKZ041-181400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. SHOWERS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 45 KT LATE.
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-181400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS EARLY IN
THE EVENING. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 45 KT LATE.
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-181400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT LATE.
GUSTS TO 60 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-181400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT LATE.
GUSTS TO 55 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. 
.WED...E GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT...EXCEPT 45 KT OUT
OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 17 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-181400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. SW SWELL.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT
LATE. 
.WED...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKDT SAT OCT 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...Complex pattern is in place across SERN AK/GOA
Saturday afternoon. A NRN stream trough is digging S across the
NRN gulf, where cold air aloft and strong vertical motion are
aiding in local thunderstorm development. Farther S, a weak upper
low was nearly stationary over the NERN PAC. A deep layer of
convergence/deformation was occurring in between the trough to the
north and upper low to the south. This convergence zone was
augmenting precipitation rates during midday Saturday, in the
form of rain at Sitka, and snow in Angoon.

By Saturday evening, strong 850-700 mb frontogenesis is forecast
to move north across the central inner channel region, which will
focus strong upward vertical motion through the dendritic growth
zone and deep-layer saturation over Juneau. Temperatures currently
reside in the mid/upper 30s, but dewpoints in the upper 20s/low
30s will support wet bulb cooling to near freezing as
precipitation rates increase this evening. Thus, expect a 6 hour
window of moderate snowfall will exist from late this afternoon
through Saturday night, resulting in borderline advisory level
accumulations.

The deformation zone and associated rain/snow showers advance N
toward Haines/Skagway during Sunday, while a second zone of
showers develops over the CNTRL/NERN gulf coast. However, of more
significance, will be strong outflow winds developing in response
to deepening low pressure over the CNTRL/WRN gulf. Gale force
winds will be probable over Cross Sound and portions of the NERN
gulf tonight into Sunday...while NELY winds to 30 kt are expected
over Yakutat Bay. Elsewhere, a tight NLY pressure gradient will
favor solid small craft winds for Lynn Canal through much of the
short term period.

.LONG TERM...Wetter pattern will be underway as upper trof
continues to deepen over the gulf into midweek. A fairly deep low
will set up over the western gulf and send a couple of occluded
fronts or surface trofs into the area through Tue. Another low and
occluded front should move into the gulf for midweek. After
midweek, the upper trof may move out only to be replaced by
another trof by the weekend. Used blend of the 12z GFS and ECMWF
for Sun night through Tue evening, then went with mainly WPC after
then.

Increased winds over the north gulf a bit as occluded front moves
into that area and low deepens over the western gulf. Should be a
period of gale force east winds there Sun night. Band of precip
will move across the north Sun night with a trof, then another
band of precip should push onshore Mon with yet another trof. May
see some thunderstorms over the north gulf with the occluded front
moving through them, fairly cold air aloft and decent PVA going
on. Milder air should move in as well in lower levels as flow
becomes more southerly.

Next significant low and front will bring more wet and windy
weather to the area for midweek. Temps should moderate enough that
precip should be mostly rain, although some wet snow could occur
over the far northern area with wind trying to become more
northerly. Models suggest gale force winds will be possible, if
not likely, with the front. Once the front moves through winds
should drop off some but onshore flow will likely persist so wet
and mild weather will be the rule for late week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ025.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-034>036-042-051>053.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041.
&&

Garner/RWT

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