Gale Warning 239, NWS Juneau, AK

389 
FZAK51 PAJK 231158
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-240215-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
SW WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE OUTER COAST
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-240215-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ012-240215-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ013-240215-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ021-240215-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ022-240215-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-240215-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ032-240215-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT OR
LESS. 

$$

PKZ033-240215-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ034-240215-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ035-240215-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-240215-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT...
EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...Wet and windy day across the panhandle as a strong
fall front moves through. As of 1 pm the front stretched from Cape
Fairweather SSE just off the outer coast to the western edge of
Haida Gwaii. Winds at Yakutat and buoys 46084 and 46083 flipped to
the W around noon indicating frontal passage at those points. The
front also shows up very well on Biorka Island radar velocity
data as a distinct wind shift. Eastward movement of the front
slowed up a little with the development of a minor wave just west
of Prince of Wales this morning so forecast time of frontal
passage through the panhandle has been pushed back a few hours as
a result. With its current rate of movement the surface front
should reach the Cross Sound and Sitka area by around 4 pm and
progress through the rest of the inner channels through this
evening. Front should exit the panhandle by midnight.

Winds have been gusty today with gusts reaching 35 to 50 mph at
many land areas. Highest gusts as of 1 pm was recorded at Yakutat
with 48 mph this morning. A lot of the wind for the inner channels
stayed aloft as the atmosphere is rather stable so wind gusts did
not reach as high as what could have happened if the atmosphere
was a little more unstable. Marine areas have been even windier
with widespread gales and storm force winds across the gulf before
frontal passage and small craft winds for the northern inner
channels to up to storm force in Clarance Strait. Gusty winds will
continue for the next few hours in the inner channels until
frontal passage. Highest winds will be mainly in the southern
inner channels where strong wind headlines for 40 mph gusts remain
up for the early evening. Post-frontal winds will switch around
to the W in the late evening and diminish to around 10 to 20 mph
and will remain that way through Fri.

Rainfall has been somewhat notable. The northern gulf coast saw
around 2 inches total from the front as some barrier jet effects
reduced rainfall in that area for a few hours. Meanwhile the
northern inner channels have seen a rather steady .15 to .25 inch
per hour rainfall rate since around 10 am. Precip frequency for
that rate is only a 2 year event for most of these areas over a 3
hour period so it is a good wetting rain but it is not something
that would cause flooding. Especially since rivers are low from
the dry weather we had the last few days. The southern panhandle
is just starting to get into the rain and should be raining for
most of the evening. With the front moving through this evening
total rainfall should only amount to 1 to 2 inches for most areas
of the panhandle through tonight. Post- frontal showers will be
the rule for late tonight into Fri. Some rather cool air is
working in behind the front with 500 mb temp reaching -25 C or
colder over the gulf late tonight into tomorrow. This is causing
model LI to reach -2 or less and cape values to reach 200 J/kg
over the gulf. Kept a slight chance of thunder in those areas as a
result.

Short range models were a little fast in bringing the front
through as they did not have the minor wave that formed along it.
Otherwise guidance was rather good. Mainly used some hi-res models
for detail updates today.

.LONG TERM...A showery/convective regime will persist over the
gulf and panhandle through Saturday. The pattern will then change
during Sunday over the SERN gulf/SRN panhandle as an upper ridge
and strong low-level baroclinic zone build NWD. The presence of
the low-level front will provide the antecedent conditions
favorable for surface cyclogenesis. At this time, the strongest
model signal for an intense cyclogenetic event is Sunday night and
Monday as a coupled upper jet structure/upper divergence becomes
collocated with the surface front. However, model spread is large
with regard to the magnitude, track, and speed of the low. Thus,
this part of the forecast will continue to be refined.

After early next week, the primary storm track will generally
emanate from interior AK, which will favor a shower precip mode
mixed with periods of cool/dry continental intrusions. As a
result, a few sea level locations...particularly from Yakutat to
Juneau northward, could experience freezing nighttime lows during
the middle of next week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ026-028.
     STRONG WIND until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ024-025-027.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036.
     Gale Warning for PKZ031-034-035-041.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-032-033.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ042-043-051>053.
&&

EAL/Garner

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