Gale Warning 233, NWS Juneau, AK

221 
FZAK52 PAJK 202330
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-211400-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN
GULF ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-211400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG
LATE. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG IN THE
MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 45 KT
LATE. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT LATE. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65
KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-211400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2016 

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 17 FT
BUILDING TO 25 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-211400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2016 

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO
16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT.
SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-211400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2016 

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING
TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE
WIND TO 55 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-211400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2016 

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS
26 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO 50
KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
344 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...A very persistent weak low still continues to
circulate off the central outer coast but is steadily tracking to
the south and looks like it will finally either dissipate or
depart the forecast area. The low is taking with it low to mid
level cloud cover and visible satellite imagery is showing
clearing condition over the central inner channels and spreading
south. Areas of low marine stratus remain, however, over some
areas of the central and northern inner channels and this is
visible in both web cams as well as visible imagery. In place of
the low, high pressure will shift east over southeast Alaska
beginning tonight. High dewpoints combined with mostly clear skies
and light winds tonight suggests that and extensive marine layer
or areas of radiation fog will develop again tonight. Assuming the
marine layer and fog dissipates, tomorrow should be another mostly
sunny day. Expected low clouds tonight should keep overnight lows
in the mid 40s or higher. Depending on how long it takes the
marine stratus to dissipate, tomorrow's highs should get into the
upper 50s or low 60s.

Virtually no change to the previous forecast apart from some
tweaks to overnight lows and re-characterization of some of the
areas of fog. Overall forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...Main focus for the long range is the strong front
that is approaching for mid to late week. Confidence continues to
build for storm force winds to occur Wed in the northern gulf
with mid to high gales for the rest of the gulf through at least
Thu. Seas will also be as high as 23 feet during this period.

Now, there is also increasing model support for a possible second
period of storm force winds encompassing the ne and northern gulf
from late Wed night into Thu. This is the result of a triple point
low developing on the front well South of the gulf wed afternoon
from a combo of the left exit region of a jet streak and an area
of upper level vorticity. This low will rapidly move north along
the front through Thu. Some model disagreement on track (NAM much
slower then ECMWF and GFS, and the ECMWF is a little farther east
then the GFS), and strength (Morning model runs ranged from 976 to
992 mb), but they are showing signs of coming into better
agreement (afternoon model run strengths were within 5 mb of each
other as far as strength). These higher winds will crash into the
northern gulf coast Wed night into Thu with strong gusty winds
possibly visiting Yakutat, Yakutat Bay, and the northeast gulf
coast.

The appearance of this low also brings a few changes to other
parts of the forecast. Namely how fast the front moves through the
rest of the panhandle. the stronger westerly flow on the south
side of the low will push the front to the east faster then what
was shown in the previous forecast. As a result, gusty winds and
rain will likely arrive a few hours earlier then the previous
forecast due to the faster eastward progress of the front. This
faster speed has the front clear the panhandle by late Thu evening
leaving showers in SW flow behind. Exact timing will depend on how
fast the low moves north along the front in the gulf.

The rest of the extended period is rather quiet with generally SW
flow and showers being the rule. There are some shortwaves that
will be moving through the area during this time but when and
where are not well indicated with position ranging from the
northern gulf to near Haida Gwaii depending on the model you look
at.

&&

.AVIATION...VMC tonight...becoming IMC to very low IMC due to CIGs
and VSBY across all of southeast Alaska by tomorrow morning.
Conditions expected to improve by mid day with some lingering
pockets of low clouds into the afternoon. Light winds and no turb
for one more day.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&

Fritsch/EAL

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