Gale Warning 175, NWS Juneau, AK

009 
FZAK52 PAJK 050641 AAB
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1041 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-051400-
1041 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-051400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1041 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 11 FT. S
SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-051400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1041 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
S SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-051400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1041 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE LATE
EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-051400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1041 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SE SWELL SHIFTING TO THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-051400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1041 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. S SWELL SHIFTING TO THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SW
SWELL. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

213 
FZAK52 PAJK 051147
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-060100-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-060100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING
TO 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-060100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW AND DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO S GALE 35 KT LATE. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-060100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE IN THE MORNING. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. SW SWELL.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-060100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS
LATE.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-060100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE IN THE MORNING. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS EARLY IN
THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
255 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL AREA OF BARANOF AND PRINCE OF WALES
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH EXPECTED IN THE KETCHIKAN AREA.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A FRONT
DISSIPATING OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION WERE REPORTED ALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SKAGWAY AND YAKUTAT.
THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND INTO YAKUTAT AND SKAGWAY THIS
EVENING, AS A STRONGER AND MORE-ORGANIZED WEATHER FRONT MOVE
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL
ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. DO EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHER PANHANDLE INCLUDING PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND KETCHIKAN
AREA. THE WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BESIDES RAIN, WIND WILL BE THE BIG STORY FOR THE OUTER COAST AND
KETCHIKAN AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 55 KT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHER
PANHANDLE. DO EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 35 KT ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS OF BARANOF AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. THE SAME
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH TO PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND AND ALSO KETCHIKAN AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE
WEATHER FRONT PUSHES INLAND TOMORROW, THERE WILL BE PRESSURE RISE
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE PRESSURE RISE WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISALLOBARIC WIND, WHICH MEANS THAT THERE IS LIKELY
TO BE A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE AREA.

WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN, DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
RATHER SMALL. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S, WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAYTIME HIGH ON
MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

UTILIZE ECMWF/NAM IN REFRESHING THE FORECAST PRODUCT. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THERE WILL BE OVERNIGHT TO TRANSFER THE HIGHER
WIND SPEED ALOFT TO NEAR THE GROUND SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK WET THROUGH
LATE WEEK AS SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DIRECT ACTIVE WAVES INTO
THE AREA. THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY MAINLY FOR
SAT, BUT LONG RANGE MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. CURRENT TREND IS
FOR A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THAT GETS PUSHED INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA BY LATE SUN WITH ANOTHER TROUGH NOW PUSHING INTO THE
PANHANDLE AS EARLY AS SUN NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PLAY WITH THE LOW COMING INTO THE
GULF ON WED INTO THU. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE WEAKENED THE LOW A
LITTLE BUT STILL REMAIN DECENT ON TRACK. LIKELY THE BIGGEST CHANGE
FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THAT IT IS NOT AS WET AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HAVE INDICATED AS THE TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT THE MODELS WERE
DISPLAYING EARLIER NOW GETS CUT OFF (A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE TROUGH PINCHING OFF INTO A CUT OFF LOW EARLY THU). AS A
RESULT EVEN THROUGH THE INITIAL WAVE ON WED NIGHT WILL BE WET THE
TRAILING FRONT BEHIND IT WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO TRAIN
INTO THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOW IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
RATHER THEN THE 2 TO 4 INCHES THAT WAS SUGGESTED A DAY OR TWO AGO.

SOME CHANGES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS
SUPPOSE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE NOW IS WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE IN ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT. AS A RESULT, THE
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE INCREASING FOR THE PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND,
MAINLY FOR SUN INTO MON, AS MORE SYSTEMS ARE ALLOWED TO ENCROACH
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. RIGHT NOW KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
RESULT.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHIFTING AROUND SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL REPRESENTED IN THE MID RANGE
THROUGH SO DECIDED TO USE MAINLY ECMWF AND SOME GFS FOR MID RANGE
UPDATES. WPC WITH ITS USE OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS MAINLY USED
FOR EXTENDED RANGE UPDATES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ027-028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>035-051-052.
&&

RCL/EAL

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