Gale Warning 170, NWS Juneau, AK

842 
FZAK67 PAJK 072315
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-081400-
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-081400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2016 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W OVERNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. SW
SWELL. RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
404 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST. A
DRY DAY IN STORE FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY, WHILE THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST REMAINS WET.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS LOW WILL BE
THE WEATHER MAKER FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE, WE HAVE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST, AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH AND GETS CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE, STEADY RAIN WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARDS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST GULF
COAST WILL BE SEEING STEADY PRECIPITATION. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES IN YAKUTAT AREA, AS THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME AIMS TOWARDS NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE ON THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH, THERE WILL ALSO BE GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTER COAST THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN WEST COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE. UTILIZE ECMWF AS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE AS IT CONTINUES TO SHOW RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW
HEADING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. GFS AND NAM MODELS HAVE
BEEN WAVERING ON THEIR SOLUTIONS IN THE LAST FEW RUNS.

.LONG TERM...LOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THU NIGHT. A
TROF WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK FRI INTO
SAT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT THEN
DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SE AK. MORE SYSTEMS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON THESE SO SPECIFICS OF ANY SYSTEM WILL BE LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTER SUN. GENERALLY PREFERRED THE 12Z ECMWF FOR MAIN
FEATURES THU NIGHT INTO SAT...THEN USED MAINLY LATEST WPC FOR SAT
NIGHT ONWARD.

PRECIP WILL BE THE HEAVIEST ON THU NIGHT OVER THE NE GULF COAST.
SOME PRECIP WILL SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN GULF COAST
AND SE AK LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS TROF MOVES ONSHORE. GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE N GULF COASTAL WATERS BY LATE
THU NIGHT. AFTER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
30-35 KT WINDS BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FRI NIGHT AND SAT OVER THE FAR ERN
GULF AND MAIN PART OF SE AK AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO
DOMINATE THE AREA. SOME PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND
POSSIBLY NE GULF COAST WITH NEXT FRONT SAT. LOOKING LIKE IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATER SUN NIGHT OR MON MORNING FOR PRECIP TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE MAIN PART OF SE AK. ALL IN ALL...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE ESPECIALLY AFTER SUN.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031>036-041-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

RCL/RWT

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