Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2016
Gale Warning 150, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Mar 4, 2016, 4:00 AM AKST. It was in force for 24 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 4, 2016, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 5, 2016, 4:00 AM AKST
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted.
698 FZAK52 PAJK 041228 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-050100- 400 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF SATURDAY. $$ PKZ041-050100- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 400 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. $$ PKZ042-050100- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 400 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S IN THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. $$ PKZ043-050100- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 400 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. .SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. $$ PKZ051-050100- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 400 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 ...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. $$ PKZ052-050100- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 400 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. .TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. $$
3 follow-up statements
611 FZAK52 PAJK 041934 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 1034 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-051345- 1034 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF SATURDAY. $$ PKZ041-051345- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 1034 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. $$ PKZ042-051345- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 1034 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING... .REST OF TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. $$ PKZ043-051345- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 1034 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .REST OF TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. .SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. $$ PKZ051-051345- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 1034 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 ...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. $$ PKZ052-051345- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 1034 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .REST OF TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. .TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. $$
914 FZAK52 PAJK 050017 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-051400- 400 PM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A GALE FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST GULF SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. $$ PKZ041-051400- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 400 PM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 ...GALE WARNING SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 13 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 14 FT. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. .WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. $$ PKZ042-051400- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 400 PM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 ...GALE WARNING SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 12 FT. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. .WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. $$ PKZ043-051400- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 400 PM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 ...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E AND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 12 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. .WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. $$ PKZ051-051400- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 400 PM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 ...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. .SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. .MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. $$ PKZ052-051400- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 400 PM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 ...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. .MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. $$
314 FZAK52 PAJK 051223 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-060100- 400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A GALE FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST GULF SAT MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO BE WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE BY SUN NIGHT. $$ PKZ041-060100- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 25 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. .SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. .WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. $$ PKZ042-060100- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE IN THE MORNING. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. .WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. $$ PKZ043-060100- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. .TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. .MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. .WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. $$ PKZ051-060100- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. .TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. .SUN...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. .MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. $$ PKZ052-060100- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. .MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. .WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Mar 3, 3:39 PM AKST, 12 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 3, 3:39 PM AKST, 12 hours 21 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
339 PM AKST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE N-CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AND NE GULF WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A WEAK TROF WILL
MOVE N THRU THE FAR ERN GULF AND SE AK TONIGHT. A GALE FORCE LOW
WILL MOVE N INTO THE FAR SE GULF LATE TONIGHT...THEN TURN NW
TOWARD THE N-CENTRAL GULF FRI. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THESE
FEATURES WERE MINOR...WITH THE MOST DIFFERENCE WITH THE LOW. USED
12Z GFS AS IT LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE ON TRACK OF THE
LOW.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL/PTYPE...AND WINDS.
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP WAS FALLING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
N-CENTRAL AREA WITH SOME DEFORMATION ENHANCEMENT ALOFT. AS THE
FRONT DISSIPATES...EXPECT THE PRECIP THREAT WITH IT TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. THE TROF HAS A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN AREA ATTM.
THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE N BUT WILL ENCOUNTER OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH
WILL DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN AREAS. THEN...PRECIP WITH THE GALE
FORCE LOW SHOULD REACH THE FAR SRN AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE NWD THRU THE INNER CHANNELS FRI BUT WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW WILL HOLD
TOGETHER MORE ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND ERN GULF AREA.
AS FOR PTYPE...ENOUGH COOL/DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS TO CAUSE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND ALLOW PRECIP TO REACH SFC AS SNOW WITH THE
DYING OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE PAJN-PAOH AREAS
NWD EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF THE COOLER AIR FOR
SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO FALL AS SNOW OVER THE NRN AREA LATER
TONIGHT. BY TIME PRECIP WITH GALE FORCE LOW MOVES IN...THINK ONLY
THREAT FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE NE AREA...MAINLY N PAJN.
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. EXPECT 40-45 KT WINDS
ON N AND E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE LOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
FOR STRONG WINDS TO AFFECT THE SRN OUTER COAST LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL. SOME OF THESE WINDS MAY TRY TO REACH THE CENTRAL COAST FRI
MORNING BUT BY THEN THE LOW WILL START TO MOVE FURTHER FROM THE
COAST. OVER THE INNER CHANNELS...NLY/ELY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE LOW WITH MOST PLACES GETTING AT LEAST SCA LEVEL WINDS. SOME
GALES ARE LIKELY OVER THE SRN CHANNELS AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DECIDED TO TAKE OUT TSTMS FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE
TROF MOVING IN THIS EVENING. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED WITH
THE CONVECTIVE CELLS ALONG THE TROF SINCE LATE MORNING...AND
EFFECT OF THE LOW TO THE S WILL BE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT OVER THE
SHOWERS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW MOVING IN
BUT IT HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY SINCE THIS MORNING...AND MODEL
FORECAST CAPES DECREASE AS SYSTEM MOVES N...SO DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY TSTMS WITH THAT SYSTEM IN OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRI.
.LONG TERM...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH MULTIPLE
UPPER LEVEL LOWS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT EACH OTHER. UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION DOES NOT COALESCE INTO A SINGLE, LARGE
CIRCULATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THAT SINGULAR FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AS
IT DRIFTS NORTH AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY ANOTHER UPPER
LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
CHAOTIC UPPER LEVEL STEERING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
COMPLICATE FORECASTING TRACK AND SPEED OF THE VARIOUS SURFACE
FEATURES AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN MODE DISAGREEMENT TODAY.
AFTERNOON MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERING THE STATE OF THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE.
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE AS DISORGANIZED AS THE STEERING FLOW.
CONSEQUENTLY, PRECIP BEING DEPICTED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS IS, AS
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOWS THEMSELVES, QUITE DISPARATE.
BIGGEST CHANGE IN THIS REGARD FROM YESTERDAY WAS TO EXTEND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS AWAY
FROM THE OUTER COAST FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. APART FROM THAT TIME FRAME, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN
OVERALL WET PATTERN BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISION OF JUST
WHERE AND WHEN IT WILL RAIN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THIS IS AMPLIFIED BY THE PASSAGE
OF EACH LOW/WAVE THAT TRACKS NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF. PEAK
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GALES
OVER SEVERAL OF THE INNER CHANNELS.
BEGAN THE EXTENDED RANGE WITH GFS22 FOR PRESSURE AND WIND TO BLEND
BETTER WITH THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. SHIFTED TO
ECMWF FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED UP WITH THE
LATEST WPC. EMPLOYED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO POP AND QPF BASED ON
DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS. SNOW
LEVELS ADJUSTED UP BASED ON FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
AKZ027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033>036-041>043-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-052-053.
&&
RWT/FRITSCH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAUThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 4:00 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 36 hr | |
| Mar 3, 4:00 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Mar 3, 4:00 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Mar 3, 4:00 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Mar 3, 4:00 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 48 hr | |
| Mar 4, 4:00 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 7 hr | |
| Mar 4, 10:34 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 5 hr | |
| Mar 4, 10:53 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 29 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.