Gale Warning 147, NWS Juneau, AK

982 
FZAK52 PAJK 032027 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1127 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-040100-
1127 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND
PANHANDLE TODAY. A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF
LATE TONIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-040100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1127 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT LATE. SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING.
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-040100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1127 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-040100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1127 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-040100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1127 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-040100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1127 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKST WED MAR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE N INTO THE FAR SRN AREA
LATE TONIGHT...THEN REACH THE NRN PANHANDLE BY LATE THU AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NWD THRU THE AREA. MODELS
WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART BUT THE NAM WAS A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHERS WITH THE FRONT. ENDED UP USING THE 12Z
GFS TO HANDLE IT FOR TONIGHT AND THU.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING PRECIP NWD MOVEMENT INTO THE
AREA...PTYPE...AND WINDS. APPEARS THAT THE PRECIP WILL GET INTO
THE FAR SRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT (AROUND 12Z)...THEN REACH MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AREA THU MORNING. THE PAJN-PAEL CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE SOME
PRECIP MOVE IN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SOME MAY GET
AS FAR N AS PAHN BY THE END OF THU AFTERNOON. THE BAND OF PRECIP
WILL LIKELY THIN SLOWLY AS IT MOVES NWD ACROSS THE AREA BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SRN 3/4THS OF THE AREA WILL GET SOME
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE A SHORT LIVED PRECIP BANDING
ENHANCEMENT AS IT REACHES THE N-CENTRAL AREA THU AFTERNOON DUE TO
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION IN THAT AREA.

AS FOR PTYPE...ENOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR PRECIP TO AT LEAST START OUT AS SNOW. THIS
COULD OCCUR AS FAR S AS THE S-CENTRAL AREA BUT IT WOULD BE SHORT
LIVED THERE. UP IN THE PAJN-PAOH-PAGS AREAS...PRECIP SHOULD START
AS SNOW AND MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW THRU LATE THU AFTERNOON AS
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING LOWERS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER-MID 30S. DO NOT
SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW OUT OF THIS THOUGH AS QPF WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 0.1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH 03Z WHERE
SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE FRONT WILL HELP INCREASE NELY FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT AND
THU MORNING. HAVE MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS INCREASING TO SCA
LEVEL N-E WINDS TONIGHT WITH GALES FOR NRN LYNN CANAL. ALSO...SCA
LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD THRU MOST OF THE ERN GULF
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING...WITH GALES FOR THE FAR SRN AREA EARLY
THU MORNING AND A SMALL AREA W OF CROSS SOUND THU AFTERNOON. THINK
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH IN NRN LYNN CANAL AREA FOR STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONE 19 FOR LAND AREAS ALONG LYNN CANAL. REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD STAY BELOW STRONG WIND...BUT SOME GUSTS COULD GET
NEAR THOSE LEVELS IN THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AREA TONIGHT DUE TO SOME
WEAK MTN WAVE ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
NEAR 50N/150W AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD,
BUT WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF ALASKA
FROM THE START. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THREE DISTINCT SHORT WAVES ROTATE NORTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW. THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THESE SHORT WAVES WILL REPRESENT
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE 4TH AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WILL DRAW THE UPPER LOW NORTH
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY
DISSIPATES OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WILL
ROTATE NORTH TO REPLACE IT ON TUESDAY.

THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO UNSETTLED WEATHER AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL
BEGIN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND LAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. MODEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE, SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN A GENERALLY WET PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IS
AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IS BELOW AVERAGE. BEST CHANGE FOR DRY
WEATHER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY LOCATIONS INLAND FROM THE OUTER COAST FROM
CAPE FAIRWEATHER SOUTH.

WARMER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE FRONT REFERENCED IN
THE SHORT TERM PARAGRAPH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE SNOW LINE NORTH,
BUT NOT BEFORE ALLOWING SOME LATE SEASON SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAR SOUTH AS JUNEAU. BEYOND THAT TIME, SNOW WILL
BE ONCE AGAIN CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND THE
HIGHWAYS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
CANADA WILL KEEP THE EAST-NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY CONDITIONS IN JUNEAU WILL CONTINUE AND
STRONG WIND HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR SKAGWAY LATER
THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION, PULSES OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF SURFACE LOWS AS THEY
TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

PRESSURES AND WINDS BIASED HEAVILY TOWARDS ECMWF THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. NEW WPC BLENDED IN WITH EXISTING GRIDS THEREAFTER. POP AND
QPF FROM VARIOUS BLENDS OF GFS40, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN NH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS UNCHANGED. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-041-043.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-042-051.
&&

RWT/FRITSCH

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