Gale Warning 142, NWS Juneau, AK

117 
FZAK67 PAJK 221141
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-230100-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-230100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

230 
FZAK67 PAJK 222328
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-231400-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EAST
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-231400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

036 
FZAK67 PAJK 231154
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-240100-
400 AM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVER HAIDA GWAII THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ310-240100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL BECOMING SW IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

352 
FZAK67 PAJK 232320
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-241400-
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE TO THE FAR SE GULF WED
NIGHT...THEN REACH NORTHERN HAIDA GWAII THU. THE LOW WILL
DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN HAIDA GWAII THU NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-241400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2016 

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. S
SWELL BECOMING SW LATE. RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING.
.THU...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
523 AM AKDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...THE STRING OF QUIET SPRINGLIKE WEATHER CONTINUES
FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESIDE OVER THE
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTH ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY EXPECT
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE. WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH
THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GENERATE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HALF. ACROSS THE SOUTH RAINFALL TOTALS
WON'T BE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. A VERY WEAK
FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND AND 15
KT OR LESS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS.

CHANGES LIMITED TO LOCAL EFFECT EDITS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORED. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE NEW LOW 970 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF ON TUESDAY WILL DEFINITELY INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE PANHANDLE WILL GO FROM THE LIGHT WIND SITUATION ON EARLY
TUESDAY TO SMALL CRAFT AND GALE FORCE ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS
WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR THE MORE EXPOSED COASTAL COMMUNITIES
WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL RAINS SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BELIEVE THE BEST RAIN TOTALS WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH THE NORTHERN CATCHING A WEAKER VERSION OF THE
FRONT WHEN IT MANAGES TO GET TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE A
HYDROLOGIC CONCERN FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS IN THE SOUTH. SOME OF
THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS MAY NEED TO HOIST A FEW STRONG WIND
HEADLINES ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF THE

MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD TO WEDNESDAY THEN THEY START TO DIFFER ON
WHERE THE LOW CENTER IT SELF WILL TRACK. HAVE KEPT WITH THE MORE
WESTERN POSITION OUT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THEN TRACKING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MID TO LONG
RANGE MODELS WERE TRYING TO HINT AT LARGER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF FRIDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.
&&

TPS/BEZENEK

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