Gale Warning 137, NWS Juneau, AK

103 
FZAK67 PAJK 011230
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 1 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-020100-
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 1 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INNER CHANNELS DURING
TUESDAY AS A LOW MOVES EAST NEAR HAIDA GWAII.

$$

PKZ310-020100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 1 2016 

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. S
SWELL.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
303 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NW OVER THE CNTRL/WRN GULF TONIGHT. AS
THIS TAKES PLACE...SHARP UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ENE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING CENTERED FROM CNTRL BC
NW ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE BY 00Z WED. RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER
TROUGH WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE INVOF HAIDA GWAII TUE
AFTERNOON...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE BENEATH THE HAIDA
GWAII TROUGH COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL YIELD
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WINDS OVER THE REGION.

INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION OVER
ALL OF SERN AK TONIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE...WHERE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A GULF FRONT WILL
FAVOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES ARE
PROBABLE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...STRENGTHENING NNELY GRADIENT WILL FAVOR SMALL CRAFT
WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL AND CROSS SOUND. MODEST CROSS BARRIER FLOW
FROM 35 TO 40 KT /PER HI-RES ARW AND NMM/ IS ALSO FORECAST TO
DEVELOP INVOF GASTINEAU CHANNEL TUE AFTERNOON...AND THOUGH A
PRONOUNCED CRITICAL LEVEL WILL BE LACKING...EXPECT A PERIOD OF 35
MPH GUSTS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU/DOUGLAS.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE UPDATED WITH A NAM/ECMWF BLEND...MOST HEAVILY
WEIGHTED TO THE EC. REMAINDER OF THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARED
TO BE ON TRACK...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS NWD PROGRESSION FROM
WEAKENING SYSTEM S OF THE AREA FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED...SO ENDED UP
CUTTING BACK ON POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AREA. ALSO...HAVE LESS CLOUD
COVER DURING THAT TIME OVER THE N AND CENTRAL AREA WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP MORE TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT OVER THE N HALF
OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WHERE LIGHTER WINDS WILL OCCUR. COULD
STILL HAVE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU TUE NIGHT
INTO WED WITH STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW BUT MARGINAL CRITICAL
LEVEL. GUSTS COULD REACH 40-45 MPH THERE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF STRONGER FRONT COMING N
INTO THE AREA AROUND LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. SOME OF THE
DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO WAY THE MODELS DEVELOP WAVES ON THE FRONT.
STILL...PRECIP THREAT WILL INCREASE...AND THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN AREAS AS PRECIP ARRIVES.
WOULD NOT THINK ANY SNOWFALL WOULD AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH DUE TO
THE DIMINISHING QPF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NWD INTO
OFFSHORE FLOW AND MARGINAL TEMPS.

FOR FRI ONWARD...STILL LOOKING LIKE A BETTER PRECIP THREAT DURING
THIS PERIOD AS MORE SYSTEMS COME UP FROM THE S...BUT MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THEM SO POPS WERE LIMITED TO LIKELY AT
THE HIGH END. LOOKS MILDER AS WELL SO SNOW CHANCES WILL BECOME
LIMITED TO THE FAR N BY THIS TIME.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-034-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

GARNER/RWT

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