Gale Warning 131, NWS Juneau, AK

951 
FZAK52 PAJK 261245
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-270100-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND EARLY FRIDAY WITH GALES
DIMINISHING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A SECOND FRONT WILL ENTER
THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING GALES TO THE
GULF AND OUTER COAST SATURDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-270100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING
TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-270100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING
TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-270100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45
KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-270100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. S
SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING E GALE TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-270100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING
TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING E GALE TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
544 AM AKST THU FEB 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN GULF
BUT WEAKEN SLOWLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NW
INTO THE FAR SW GULF TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING
N THROUGH THE ERN GULF TONIGHT. USED THE 00Z ECMWF AS IT HAD BEST
HANDLE ON THE MAIN FEATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL/TYPE/AMOUNTS...AND
WINDS. RIGHT NOW...PRECIP IS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE E
OF PAYA AREA. THE NW EDGE OF THIS PRECIP WILL DIMINISH SOME LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR NRN AREA BUT INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
NEXT FRONT MOVES IN. THE AREAS TO THE S WILL REMAIN WET THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE 2 OCCLUDED FRONTS AROUND. THE PAYA AREA IS OUT OF
THE RAIN ATTM AND THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY UNTIL RAIN
SHIELD WITH SECOND FRONT SPREADS NW INTO THEM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
RAINFALL MAY REACH 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN
THE SRN AREA. DID UPDATE THE SPS REGARDING THIS RAINFALL AND
EXPECTED RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED GIVEN HOW LOW WATER LEVELS ARE ATTM.

THE ONLY PTYPE CONCERN IS OVER THE FAR N. STILL SNOWING NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON BOTH THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS. WARMER
AIR WILL MOVE NWD AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW TO AT LEAST MIX
WITH RAIN...AND PROBABLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG THE HAINES
HIGHWAY. THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR SO KEPT THE
WS WARNINGS GOING UNTIL NOON TODAY. AS SECOND FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT...MAY SEE THE PRECIP GO BACK TO ALL SNOW NEAR WHITE PASS
AND THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW THERE. ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED FOR WHITE PASS TONIGHT. THE HAINES
HIGHWAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH 925 MB TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING THERE.

STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND FAR ERN
GULF...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS GOING ON. THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF
SOME AS THE FRONT THERE WEAKENS...BUT NEXT FRONT MOVING IN WILL
INCREASE THEM AGAIN. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD NWWD THRU
THE ERN GULF TONIGHT. THINK THE FAR NRN INNER CHANNELS WILL
GENERALLY STAY BELOW 20 KT...WHILE THE CENTRAL AREA SEES SCA LEVEL
WINDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH EVEN AFTER WINDS DROP OFF SOME
DUE TO LARGE SWELLS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME SPOTS WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 50S...MAINLY OVER THE SRN AREA.
EVEN LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH DECENT SLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING WARM AIRMASS...AND PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER TO PREVENT RADIATIVE COOLING.

.LONG TERM...PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES W ACROSS THE WRN GULF WITH
STRATIFORM PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS AND DIMINISHING. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRACK...SE-NW THROUGH THE GULF...SAT INTO SUN. OFFSHORE GRADIENT
WILL AID IN DIMINISHING SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATIFORM PRECIP TO SE AK. GALES
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM OVER THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS
WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES POSSIBLE FOR AKZ027. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIVERGE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT MAINTAIN A
SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH SE AK ON THE W SIDE OF RIDGE
AXIS. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK SO INCLUDED
SOME MIXED PRECIP DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING SFC
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND POSITION OF
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOWS...SO ELECTED TO MAINTAIN INHERITED FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT FALLS
TO BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING SURFACE DETAILS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031>035.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

RWT/BC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1153 AM AKST THU FEB 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     SNOW             11 NNE SKAGWAY          59.62N 135.21W
02/25/2016  M4.7 INCH                           AK   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            4.7 INCHES OF SNOW WAS MEASURED NEAR MOORE CREEK BRIDGE
            AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY.

0745 AM     SNOW             14 NNE SKAGWAY          59.66N 135.18W
02/25/2016  E5.0 INCH        XXX                XX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ALASKA DOT REPORTED AROUND 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVERNIGHT
            NEAR WHITE PASS. SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO FALL AS OF 745 AM
            THURSDAY.

0800 AM     SNOW             40 NW HAINES            59.65N 136.25W
02/25/2016  M12.0 INCH       XXX                XX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAINES CUSTOMS REPORTED A 24 HOUR TOTAL OF 12.0 INCHES OF
            SNOW AS OF 800 AM THURSDAY.

&&

DEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
107 PM AKST THU FEB 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     SNOW             11 NNE SKAGWAY          59.62N 135.21W
02/25/2016  M9.7 INCH                           AK   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            AK DOT OFFICIAL REPORTED A STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 9.7
            INCHES NEAR MOORE CREEK BRIDGE AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY.

&&

DEL