Gale Warning 104, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Feb 6, 2016, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Feb 6, 2016, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

522 
FZAK52 PAJK 061234
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-070100-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH SATURDAY. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE
GULF ON SATURDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-070100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-070100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-070100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 45 KT LATE. OUT OF CROSS
SOUND...GUSTS TO 55 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE.
RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-070100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT
LATE. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT LATE. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-070100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT
LATE. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 5, 2:39 PM AKST, 13 hours 21 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
239 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...QUIETER WEATHER DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY.
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE WERE
EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND REPORTS OF PELLETS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT
OVER THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHARPEN ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING GALE FORCE FRONT
THAT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
SECTION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE SEEN ON WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS
THERE REMAINS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WITH SOME COOLER AIR
ALOFT RESIDING OVER THE PANHANDLE EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW MIX
IN AT SEA LEVEL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO
DUE TO LOW QPF AMOUNTS AND A STILL RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE
EASTERLY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THE SHARPENING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN 15-20 KT SOUTHERLIES THROUGH
THE INNER CHANNELS ON SATURDAY BUT DO NOT FORSEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
WIND THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME.

USED THE 12Z NAM FOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS OBSERVED IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE NCNTRL PAC FRI AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE BY SAT...AT WHICH
POINT IT WILL MOVE N TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH SUN. AS THIS
TAKES PLACE...A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TO COASTAL PORTIONS
OF SERN AK. IN ADDITION TO HAZARDOUS MARINE WINDS...SELY GUSTS
FROM 40-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES...AS WELL
AS THE KETCHIKAN AREA.

A MOIST AIRMASS /PW VALUES FROM 0.5 TO 0.7 INCH/ WILL SPREAD N
TOWARD THE SRN PANHANDLE WITH THE FRONT...AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MON NIGHT. THIS WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR SRN
AREAS...AND POTENTIALLY WET HEAVY SNOW OVER HYDER SUN-SUN NIGHT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM FOR WINTER STORM
WATCH ISSUANCE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NNW WILL TEMPORARILY SHUT DOWN THE
WET WEATHER DURING PART OF TUE...BUT THIS BREAK WILL QUICKLY BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE NIGHT/WED. WARM AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD N WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE UPDATED WITH AN ECMWF/NAM/GFS/INHERITED BLEND
THROUGH 00Z TUE...FOLLOWED BY WPC THEREAFTER. REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST WAS ALSO REFRESHED WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-043-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041-042-051-053.
&&

TPS/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every gale warning in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.