Gale Warning 103, NWS Juneau, AK

688 
FZAK51 PAJK 051303
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
403 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-060315-
403 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN
DISSIPATE THERE FRIDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-060315-
GLACIER BAY-
403 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-060315-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
403 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS
AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-060315-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
403 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-060315-
ICY STRAIT-
403 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-060315-
CROSS SOUND-
403 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-060315-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
403 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN EARLY IN
THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-060315-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
403 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN EARLY IN THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-060315-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
403 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO
12 FT LATE. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT...
EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-060315-
FREDERICK SOUND-
403 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-060315-
SUMNER STRAIT-
403 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-060315-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
403 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHG IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT. S SWELL. RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT
12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
258 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO QUIETER WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
FRONT CROSSING THE PANHANDLE TODAY HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS,
MODERATE RAINFALL, AND HEAVY SNOW. REPORTS HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ON THE HAINES HIGHWAY WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ALSO OCCURRING IN SKAGWAY AND ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS ALSO UNDERWAY IN THE HYDER AREA WITH THE
STEWART,BC OBSERVATION CURRENTLY REPORTING MODERATE SNOW AND 1/2
MILE VISIBILITY. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE PANHANDLE BUT STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE
GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING. A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

A DRY SLOT SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AM EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION RATES TO QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL BE
CANCELLING THE WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR THE HAINES AND SKAGWAY
ZONES AT 4 PM. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING AN IMPRESSIVE
PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ONLY EXPECT THIS
REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE DEVELOPING
WAVE MOVES CLOSER. FEELING IS PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO KEEP AN ISOTHERMAL PROFILE AT FREEZING IN HYDER EVEN WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT. DUE TO THIS UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY MORNING WITH
10-14 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE THE OTHER MAIN STORY TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING EXPECT GUSTS TO BE ENHANCED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 60 MPH
OVER PRINCE OF WALES AND IN THE VICINITY OF KETCHIKAN. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.

THE FORECASTED WEATHER ON FRIDAY CAN BE SUMMED UP WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.

USED THE 12Z NAM AND HIRES GUIDANCE FOR UPDATES TO THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTING OVER
THE ALEUTIANS/NCNTRL PAC REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH WILL FORCE QUASI-PERMANENT RIDGING OVER THE W
COAST OF N AMERICA. THIS WILL FOCUS WARM...MOIST...DEEP-LAYER SLY
FLOW EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE BY SUN...WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN EPISODIC
FASHION THROUGH NEXT THU. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT ON SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES N
ACROSS THE ERN GULF. PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE MON-MON NIGHT...WITH THE PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE REGIME AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM THE NERN
PAC NNW ACROSS THE GULF/PANHANDLE.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR HYDER
DURING THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER BC LOCKS IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO
MODERATE STRONGLY AFTER MON AS VERY WARM AIR SPREADS N WITH
INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. INHERITED TEMPERATURE GRIDS SHOWED
THE MODERATING TREND FAIRLY WELL. PRESSURE GRIDS WERE UPDATED WITH
AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND THROUGH SAT...THEN TRANSITIONED TO LATEST WPC
BY SUN. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS ALSO UPDATED WITH AN
ENSEMBLE BLEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-025.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
     GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-035-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-031>034.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

TPS/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
948 PM AKST THU FEB 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST HYDABURG                55.21N 132.82W
02/04/2016  M55.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

            PEAK GUST OCCURED TWICE BETWEEN 930 AND 1030 AM AT
            HYDABURG SEA PLANE BASE.

0412 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ANNETTE                 55.04N 131.59W
02/04/2016  M63.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

            PEAK GUST AT ANNETTE AIRPORT.

0435 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST METLAKATLA              55.12N 131.57W
02/04/2016  M59.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

            PEAK GUST AT METLAKATLA SEA PLANE BASE.

0636 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HYDABURG                55.21N 132.82W
02/04/2016  M52.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

            PEAK GUST AT HYDABURG SEA PLANE BASE.

0752 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W KETCHIKAN           55.34N 131.72W
02/04/2016  M53.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

            PEAK GUST AT KETCHIKAN AIRPORT.

&&

EAL