Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

945 
WWAK41 PAFG 101104
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
304 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

AKZ206-102000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160610T2000Z/
NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...ANAKTUVUK PASS...ATIGUN PASS...GALBRAITH LAKE...
SAGWON...FRANKLIN BLUFFS
304 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT
TODAY...

* LOCATION...NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE CREST AND EAST OF THE 
  DALTON HIGHWAY. 

* SNOW...ABOUT 1 INCH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED 
  THIS MORNING. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL 4 TO 9 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END BY NOON...WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF
  SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MAY BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

603 
WWAK41 PAFG 101636
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
836 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

AKZ206-101745-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160610T2000Z/
NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...ANAKTUVUK PASS...ATIGUN PASS...GALBRAITH LAKE...
SAGWON...FRANKLIN BLUFFS
836 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
158 PM AKDT THU JUN 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...Good short term continuity in the model runs, but they
have quite a bit of spread as they get out into the extended
periods. Models initialized well against the 18Z surface
analysis. Will use a blend for the short term maintaining
continuity with the previous forecast.

ALOFT...At 500 HPA...521 dam low 200 nm north of Deadhorse
will slowly move southeast through Friday afternoon to 200 nm
north of Shingle Point Yukon, then east to Banks Island by
Saturday morning. A series of shortwaves will swing around the
low over the arctic coast, but timing will be very difficult. The
last of the shortwaves will move over the eastern arctic coast
late Friday evening with some weak ridging move in behind it. Weak
ridging south of the Brooks range has 555 dam heights over the
Fairbanks area with ridging extending west over the middle yukon
valley. The ridge will pull back into Canada Friday with the
ridging extending over the middle Tanana valley. The ridge then
slides north and builds back to the west over the Brooks range
Saturday as the low in the eastern arctic pulls out. A 534 dam low
near Amchitka will absorb a 540 dam low over the Pribilof islands
as it moves east to be over Nikolski by Friday evening, then over
Sand Point by Saturday evening. Long wave trough will move over
the west coast Saturday and rotate east over the interior Sunday,
then over the Yukon Monday. AT 850 HPA...Zero isotherm lies from
Old Crow Yukon to Anaktuvuk Pass to Noatak to Point Lay this
afternoon and will see little movement over the next 24 hours as
it will lie from Old Crow Yukon to Atigun Pass to Wainwright by
Friday afternoon, then pulls north of the arctic coast by Saturday
morning. Models show the Temperatures spiking up over the eastern
interior to around 12 celsius along the border and around 8
celsius over Fairbanks on Friday, then cooling a bit. All models
indicating another cooling off for Tuesday and Wednesday next week
as the zero isotherm dives south with another arctic cold front.

SURFACE...Arctic front over the arctic coast spreading snow from
Point Lay east, and will slowly pull out to the east with snow
ending Friday morning. A 1005 mb low over Barrow is rotating
around a 1003 mb low 300 nm northeast of Barrow. A 1008 mb low
that develops over the northeast interior this evening, is
associated with the decaying arctic boundary across the interior,
will move northeast. The lows will merge just north of MacKenzie
Bay early Friday morning, then move to Banks Island by Saturday
morning. Ridging from a 1021 mb high over the Chukotsk Peninsula
and Chukchi Sea will break off with a 1013 mb high moving over the
arctic plain by Friday morning, and continues east over MacKenzie
Bay by Friday evening at 1015 mb, continuing to move east into
Canada. Weak troughing will persist between the Brooks and Alaska
ranges with a thermal trough developing over the eastern interior
and upper Tanana valley Friday and slowly moving to the upper
Yukon Flats by Sunday morning. A 1000 mb low near the Pribilof
Island will spin a weak front north over Norton Sound and the
southern Seward Peninsula, then weak high pressure builds over
the area Friday night.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Next wave and low spinning around
the low in the arctic will spread some heavy snow to the north
slopes of the eastern Brooks range tonight as indicated by the
last couple model runs, so will issue a Winter Weather Warning for
6 to 10 inches of snow. Snow tapering off slowly from the west
starting this evening, and ending in the eastern Brooks range
Friday evening. West winds will swing around to north as the low
moves east with winds generally 10 to 20 mph. GOES MVFR/IFR
probability product at 09/1745Z indicates quite a bit of MVFR
conditions with just some patchy IFR conditions around Barrow.
Expect the IFR conditions to expand over most of the eastern
arctic as the next wave move this evening. Conditions will improve
on Friday from the west as the surface high moves across the area
in advance the next wave front that will move to the northwest
coast late Friday evening. Temperatures will be on a bit of a
roller coaster with some warming this weekend in advance of some
cold arctic air surging south Monday with the next front.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A front swinging north this
evening will spread some showers over the area from the southern
seward peninsula and areas south of Huslia. Some areas will see
around one quarter inch through Friday night. Looking like a good
setup for some showers and thunderstorms in the western interior
Saturday as the longwave trough moves over the area and some weak
shortwaves spin around the upper level low over Sand Point. Warmer
the next few days with the south flow, then cooling as the long
wave trough moves east of the area Monday. Generally northeast to
east winds 5 to 15 mph becoming light and variable Saturday
through Sunday, then increasing from the west and northwest on
Monday.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Weak trough remains over the
interior with some isolated to scattered showers over most of the
area. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening, mainly
south and east of Fairbanks. Less shower activity on Friday over
the eastern interior, but with thermal trough developing in the
eastern interior and upper Tanana valley there will be at least
isolated showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Expect
improved chances of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and
Sunday as the ridge aloft moves over the Upper Yukon flats and
Brooks range, and the long wave trough moves east making the
atmosphere unstable. Winds will generally be light and variable,
except for some gusty winds in the Alaska range to around 25 mph.
Temperatures will jump up a bit the next couple days and be closer
to normal with highs around 70 and lows around 50, then start
cooling off Sunday.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are
expected over much of the Central and Eastern Interior as well as
the Kobuk and Noatak Valleys Friday. High temperatures could climb
into the mid 70s over parts of the Eastern Interior. Afternoon
humidities will fall to between 20 to 30 percent in some areas in
the Eastern Interior, and Kobuk and Noatak Valleys. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible this evening over parts of the Southern
and Eastern Interior. Areal coverage of thunderstorms will expand
Saturday to include all of the interior as instability increases.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No issues at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ206.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ245.

&&

SDB JUN 16