Small Craft Advisory 97, NWS Fairbanks, AK

181 
FZAK52 PAFG 011201
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
401 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-020030-
401 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 989 MB LOW 350 NM NORTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO A
POINT 300 NM NORTH OF THE MCKENZIE DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TUESDAY.

$$

PKZ200-020030-
NORTON SOUND-
401 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-020030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
401 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-020030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
401 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-020030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
401 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

CCC/BB AUG 16

615 
FZAK52 PAFG 012317
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
317 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-021230-
317 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST COAST OF ALASKA
TONIGHT...AND WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD TO BE NEAR THE YUKON DELTA
BY WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA AND WILL EXTEND INTO THE BERING SEA BY MIDWEEK.

$$

PKZ200-021230-
NORTON SOUND-
317 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-021230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
317 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND NORTH.
W WINDS 20 KT S AND E OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT NORTH OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND 4 FT S AND E OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-021230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
317 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-021230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
317 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY EARLY EVENING.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FOG... RAIN.
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

NS AUG 16

485 
FZAK52 PAFG 021151
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
351 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-030300-
351 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT FROM ABOUT PRUDHOE BAY SOUTHWESTWARD TO ABOUT
KOTZEBUE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD BUT WEAKENING. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND WILL EXTEND
INTO THE BERING SEA BY MIDWEEK.

$$

PKZ200-030300-
NORTON SOUND-
351 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-030300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
351 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-030300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
351 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-030300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
351 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

CF/JK AUG 16

211 
FZAK52 PAFG 022249
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
249 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-031645-
249 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT LIES FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO ISABEL PASS AND
WEST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. THAT FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST OVER
THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT BUT MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT LIES FROM THE GULF OF ANADYR
TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTHEAST OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO LIE OVER THE YUKON DELTA WED AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND DRIFT EAST OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND STRENGTHEN A BIT. 

$$

PKZ200-031645-
NORTON SOUND-
249 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT...EXCEPT SW WINDS 
15 KT FROM CAPE DARBY SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
FOG...RAIN.
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-031645-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
249 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT...EXCEPT SW WINDS 15 KT OFF THE YUKON
DELTA. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT...EXCEPT W WINDS 10 KT OFF THE YUKON DELTA.
SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-031645-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
249 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-031645-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
249 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

DJH/LTH AUG 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
203 PM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
Upper low centers centered 400 nm north of Demarcation Point and
300 nm north of Wrangel Island will merge into a single center
650 nm north of the Mackenzie River Delta by Monday evening. A
short wave trough now moving across the eastern interior will
exit eastward into the Yukon Territory by this evening, leaving
a westerly flow pattern from the northern interior northward and
weak ridging elsewhere. A second short wave trough extending
southwestward from the western low center to the Russian coast
will swing southeastward and intensify as it arrives over the
northwest Alaska coast and the Chukchi Sea Tuesday morning. The
short wave trough will then gradually weaken as it moves eastward
across the northern Alaska mainland through Wednesday night. Model
runs for the Jul 31/12Z forecast cycle are in good agreement
through Wednesday.

SURFACE...
A weather front extending from a 989 mb low 300 nm north of
Wrangel Island southeastward into the Chukchi Sea will sweep
eastward across the Arctic coast tonight and exit northeastward
into the eastern Beaufort Sea and eastern Arctic Ocean by Monday
morning. The 989 mb low center 300 nm north of Wrangel Island will
move to 350 nm north of the Mackenzie River delta by late Monday
night weakening to 994 mb. A new 992 mb low will develop 300 nm
north of Prudhoe Bay late tonight and move to near Prince Patrick
Island in the Canadian Archipelago by late Monday night weakening
to 994 mb. A weak 1007 mb low will develop over the northeast
interior Tuesday afternoon and weaken to 1015 mb by Wednesday
afternoon.

With the next incoming short wave trough, rain will develop over
the central and western Arctic slope tonight, with the area
of rain gradually moving eastward through eastward through
Tuesday night and spreading southward to the Brooks Range and the
west coast from the Seward Peninsula northward. Rainfall amounts
of 0.5 to 1 inch could occur in parts of the northwest interior
and Brooks Range, resulting in rises in the levels of small rivers
and streams.

Rain over many areas of the eastern interior between the Tanana
and Yukon Rivers is expected to taper off to scattered showers by
this evening. Light rain may continue for most of the overnight
hours in Denali Park.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warmer and drier conditions are expected in the interior Monday
and Tuesday, but minimum RH values will remain above 40 percent.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Significant rainfall has continued overnight and this morning
over much of the area between the Yukon and Tanana Rivers
from the White Mountains and the Fairbanks area west, with
additional amounts of 0.3 to more than 1 inch since 10 PM last
evening. Streams and small rivers in these areas will continue to
be running at high levels with minor flooding possible, especially
on smaller creeks in mountainous terrain. The Chena River near Two
Rivers is currently about one half foot above minor flood stage
and appears to be cresting at this time. Some light rain is
expected to continue in Denali Park but small streams in that area
may be at high levels through most of tonight. Rain ended
yesterday over most of the western interior and over the southern
Seward Peninsula and the Nulato Hills. The flood advisories for
the Middle Yukon and lower Koyukuk valleys, the Nulato Hills, and
the southern Seward Peninsula have been cancelled.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

RF JUL 16