Small Craft Advisory 91, NWS Fairbanks, AK

401 
FZAK51 PAFG 261207
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
407 AM AKDT TUE JUL 26 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-270315-
407 AM AKDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED 150 NM SOUTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL
DEEPEN TO 1000 MB NEAR BARROW WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE
TO 150 NM NORTH NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


$$

PKZ225-270315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
407 AM AKDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.TODAY...S WINDS 10 KT. 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.THU...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-270315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
407 AM AKDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.WED...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-270315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
407 AM AKDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-270315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
407 AM AKDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-270315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
407 AM AKDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

RF/DJH JUL 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
319 PM AKDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
There is currently a low over the Gulf of Alaska and over the high
Arctic with a weak ridge over the West Coast and Interior of
Alaska. Several short wave troughs will move from north of Siberia
southeast across the Chukchi Sea and West Coast of Alaska this
week causing the lows to merge into a long wave trough over
mainland Alaska by late this week and then persisting into next
week. This will bring about a cooling and wetting trend late this
week that will persist into next week.

A weak short wave trough from Cape Lisburne to the Chukotsk
Peninsula will move to Deadhorse to Nome by 4am Tue...and to
Barter Island to Norton Sound by 4pm Tue and then dissipating
over the eastern Interior Wed. With this feature expect some low
to mid level clouds along with drizzle and fog along the coast and
just mid level clouds inland. Expect a few afternoon thunderstorms
with this feature over Interior Tue and Wed.

A second and stronger short wave will move over the western
Chukchi Sea by 4pm Tue, to Cape Lisburne to the Yukon Delta by
4am Wed, to Barrow to Bethel by 4pm Wed...and then dissipating
over the eastern Interior Thu. There will be rain with this
feature along the NW Coast of Alaska that will become scattered
showers as it moves southeast across mainland Alaska. Isolated
thunderstorms will form along and east of this feature Wed and
Thu.

A third short wave will move to the Chukchi Sea Wed pm and to the
western Interior and western North Slope Thu. This will bring
widespread rain to the western North Slope and West Coast Wed
night and Thu with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in
the central and western Interior Thu.

Surface...
A thermal trough from McGrath to Chicken will move to Anvik to
Fairbanks to Eagle by 4pm Tue and to Bethel to Tanana to Old Crow
by 4pm Wed. There could be a few thunderstorms along and south of
the today and Tue, becoming isolated Wed and Thu along and south
of the trough.

A low in eastern Siberia will move to south of Wrangel Island as
a 1004 mb low by 4am Tue, to 100 NM west of Cape Lisburne by 4pm
Tue as a 1001 mb low, to near Point Lay as a 999 mb low by 4am
Wed, to 150 nm north of Barrow as a 997 mb low by 4pm Wed, and
then continue moving north. A cold front trailing this low will
move to Point Lay to the Bering Strait by 4am Wed, to Nuiqsut to
the Bering Strait by 4pm Wed, and to Deadhorse to Norton Sound by
4pm Thu. Will see widespread rain with the low center.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models showing similar long wave pattern through Fri then start
to see large differences on timing and strength of short waves
over the weekend. Will use the ECMF ensemble means from the
weekend into next week per WPC discussion. At the surface the
the NAM and GFS differ significantly on strength of surface low
moving east across the southern Chukchi Sea on Tue. The NAM
deepens the low too much as it moves over the water so prefer the
GFS solution which maintains the low without deepening it.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
a few thunderstorms possible today and Tue in the southern
Interior, Isolated thunderstorms possible Wed and Thu south of the
thermal trough. Rh will remain above 30%.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Chena River will remain high through Wed with minor flooding
upstream of Nordale Road including the Steamboat Landing
subdivision.
The Tanana River will fall slowly next several days with ponded
water slowly receding.
Lake Minchumina will remain high and possibly rise through the
week.
Small Rivers in the Alaska Range near Isabell Pass will remain
high today then fall tonight.
There is a possibility of heavy rain in western Alaska Range from
Denali southwest on the weekend that will need to be monitored but
is still very uncertain at this point in time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Advisory for the Chena River upstream of Nordale Road including
the Steamboat Landing Subdivision.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ235

&&

JB JUL 16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1000 AM AKDT MON JUL 25 2016

AKZ226-261800-
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
1000 AM AKDT MON JUL 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE YESTERDAY...

IN THE PAST DAY AND A HALF THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE HAD HEAVY
RAIN. THE LARGEST REPORTED 24 HOUR AMOUNTS AS OF 8 AM INCLUDED
1.4 INCHES AT FIELDING LAKE, 1.3 INCHES AT PHELAN CREEK NEAR THE
GULKANA GLACIER, 0.95 INCH AT TRIMS DOT CAMP, AND AROUND 0.9 INCH
AT PAXSON, DELTA RIVER AND MACLAREN RIVER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCH MAY OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN AREAS OF
THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE WHERE THE HEAVY RAINS FELL WILL BE
RUNNING AT ELEVATED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1021 AM AKDT MON JUL 25 2016

AKZ221-261830-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-
INCLUDING...NENANA...ANDERSON...TANANA...MINTO...
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS...RAMPART...LAKE MINCHUMINA...LIVENGOOD
1021 AM AKDT MON JUL 25 2016

...HIGH WATER AT LAKE MINCHUMINA...

A TRAINED OBSERVER AT LAKE MINCHUMINA HAS REPORTED THAT THE LAKE
LEVEL HAS BEEN RISING ALL MONTH. THE BEACH ROAD ALONG LAKE
MINCHUMINA THAT IS THE ACCESS TO THE AIRPORT IS NOW ERODING AND
IMPASSIBLE TO SOME VEHICLES. PEOPLE ARE NOW TRAVELING BY BOAT, BY
FOOT, OR BY INLAND TRAIL.

LAKE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND
COULD CONTINUE TO RISE.