Small Craft Advisory 87, NWS Fairbanks, AK

448 
FZAK52 PAFG 222219
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 PM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-231330-
219 PM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED 400 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE EAST
AND BE 400 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY SUN EVENING. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ200-231330-
NORTON SOUND-
219 PM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-231330-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
219 PM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-231330-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
219 PM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-231330-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
219 PM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

LTH/RM JUL 16

108 
FZAK52 PAFG 231210
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
410 AM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-240315-
410 AM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED 400 NM NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL
WEAKEN TO A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED 400 NM NORTH OF THE MACKENZIE
RIVER DELTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA INTERIOR.

$$

PKZ200-240315-
NORTON SOUND-
410 AM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. FOG...
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-240315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
410 AM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 5 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-240315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
410 AM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-240315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
410 AM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

RF/DJH JUL 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
555 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Current GFS/NAM/ECMWF model runs from the Jul 22/00Z cycle
are generally similar on the forecast surface and upper air
patterns over and near northern Alaska out through Sunday night.

UPPER AIR...
A short wave trough extending from Norton Sound to southwest of
St Matthew Island will move eastward and deepen into an upper
low center over the northern Gulf of Alaska tonight then
gradually weaken as it exits northeastward over the southern Yukon
Territory Saturday night. A weak trough aloft across the Beaufort
Sea will move southward and become a broad area of low pressure
over Alaska mainland by late Saturday night, with weak low centers
about 50 nm northwest of Gambell and near McGrath. By Sunday night
the pattern will evolve into a trough extending from the eastern
Arctic coast southwestward to the lower Kuskokwim valley, with an
upper low center over the Yukon Delta area.

SURFACE...
A 1018 mb high 400 nm north of Gambell will move slowly eastward
to 400 nm north of Prudhoe Bay by late Sunday night while building
to 1022 mb. A low pressure trough extending the Chukotsk Peninsula
eastward into the northern Yukon Territory will gradually morph
into a broad area of low pressure over the southern interior areas
of northern Alaska by late Saturday night. Broad low pressure will
remain over the southwestern interior through Sunday night, with
a weak 100 mb low center 100 nm northeast of Bethel and a trough
extending to about 50 nm north of Northway.

Interior...
Large scale low pressure at the surface and aloft will cause
wet pattern through Sunday night, with most areas seeing 0.10 to
0.25 inch of rain per 24 hour period, with some areas seeing 0.25
to 0.50 inch. Local 24 hour amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inch will be
possible in the eastern Alaska Range Sunday into Sunday night.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected over parts of the northern
interior this afternoon and evening, over parts of the southern
and western interior Saturday afternoon and evening, and over the
southwest interior and parts of the southeast interior Sunday
afternoon and evening.

West coast...
A wet pattern will continue over most areas from the Seward
Peninsula southward through Saturday night, with most areas
seeing 0.10 to 0.25 inch of rain per 24 hour period.

Arctic coast...
No significant weather expected through the weekend
along the coast. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy
with areas of fog mainly from Barrow eastward late at
night and early in the morning.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No issues. Wet conditions will continue over the interior through
the weekend. Minimum relative humidities will remain above 40
percent in most areas today and Saturday...except in some parts
of the northern interior near the Brooks Range where minimum
humidities are expected to be 30 to 40 percent. Maximum
humidities at night are expected to be 80 percent or higher
tonight and Saturday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood advisory remains in effect for the Chena River above
the Moose Creek dam. The Chena River at Two Rivers is currently
at 20.7 feet, about 1.2 feet above minor flood stage. The rate of
rise is slowing and the river will likely crest at a stage just
below 21 feet later this morning. The Little Chena River near
Fairbanks is at the action stage of 21.0 feet with the rate of
rise starting to decrease. The Little Chena River is expected to
crest at a stage below 22 feet later this morning. Flow in the
Chena River is being regulated by the Moose Creek Dam. The stage
of the Chena River at Fairbanks is currently 8.6 feet and is
expected to remain stationary while the river flow is being
regulated by the Moose Creek dam. The Tanana River is expected to
continue to rise slowly at Fairbanks, Manley Hot Springs, and
Nenana. The Tanana River at Nenana is expected to rise to about
12.1 feet late Sunday night. Minor flood stage at Nenana is 12.5
feet. Widespread rainfall expected during the next 3 days will
likely slow down the rate of fall on the Chena and Little Chena
rivers, and result in a continued very slow rise on the Tanana
River. The Salcha River at the Richardson Highway Bridge has
climbed to a stage of 13.1 feet which is 0.9 foot below the minor
flood stage of 14.0 feet. The Salcha river at the Richardson
Highway bridge appears to be creating at this time and is likely
to begin falling later today. Water levels on streams in rivers
in western Denali National Park will likely remain near bankfull
stage today due to the saturated ground and recent rainfall.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.
Flood Advisory for the Chena River above the Moose Creek Dam.
&&

RF JUL 16