Small Craft Advisory 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

766 
FZAK51 PAFG 122313
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
313 PM AKDT THU MAY 12 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-131515-
313 PM AKDT THU MAY 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER INTERIOR ALASKA EXTENDS NORTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEAR SHORE WESTERN AND ARCTIC MARINE AREAS. A
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CHUKCHI WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AND THE BEAUFORT
SEA.

$$

PKZ225-131515-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
313 PM AKDT THU MAY 12 2016

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT.  
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT.  
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT.  
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-131515-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
313 PM AKDT THU MAY 12 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 1 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS CALM.  
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS CALM.  

$$

PKZ235-131515-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
313 PM AKDT THU MAY 12 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT.  
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT.  
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT.  
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-131515-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
313 PM AKDT THU MAY 12 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 5 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT.  
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT.  
.SUN...NW WINDS 10 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT.  
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT.  
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-131515-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
313 PM AKDT THU MAY 12 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. 
.FRI...E WINDS 5 KT. SEAS CALM.  
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT.  
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT.  
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

DJH/ET MAY 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
230 AM AKDT THU MAY 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...Good run to run continuity over the past few days
continues. Very good agreement through around 66 hours before
some significant differences appear. Moisture flow north over the
west coast gets cut off today, so warming and drying across area
as ridging builds to the west. Will only make minor adjustments
to the current short term forecast database using a blend of the
models.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...578 dam closed high developing over the AlCan
border east of Tok today will remain fairly stationary the next
36 hours. Ridging will build west over the Alaska range this
evening then rotates north over the Seward peninsula and bering
strait by Saturday afternoon as the closed center moves east. A
540 dam low over the gulf of Anadyr will drift south and be
absorbed into a 534 dam low over the north Pacific tonight. A 529
dam low 300 nm northwest of Wrangel island will move east to 450
nm north of Barrow by Friday evening with a shortwave extending
south over the Chukchi sea. The low will continue east over the
northern Beaufort sea by Saturday morning with the shortwave
extending southwest over Barrow, then moves southeast over Banks
island by Sunday morning with the shortwave extending southwest to
Anaktuvuk pass. At 850 HPA...zero isotherm is north of the
eastern arctic coast near 75N, then drops south to lie from Barrow
to Kaltag to King Salmon this morning. By Saturday morning it will
lie from Barter island to Selawik to Kipnuk, and by Sunday morning
will lie from Chalkyitsik to Indian mountain to Selawik to St
Michael then southwest. Temperatures will rise to around 12
Celsius over the AlCan border Friday and Saturday. Temperatures
will cool slightly Sunday and Monday.

SURFACE...1023 mb low developed over the White mountains today and
it will slowly drift to the upper Yukon flats by Friday morning
and remains stationary until it dissipates late Saturday. 1032
high over the Gulf of Alaska will move northwest over the
southwest mainland by Friday morning with a second center
developing over the Seward Peninsula. A 1030 mb high will persist
over the southeast Yukon territory into early Sunday. The thermal
trough will develop over the upper Tanana valley Saturday and
Sunday. A 1030 mb high will develop over the central arctic coast
and plains tonight and persist through the weekend as it is
reinforced by a 1032 mb high that develops over the Chukchi
sea then moves north and east just north of the arctic coast
through the weekend.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Warmer conditions through the
weekend with some clearing. Warmer temperatures will lead to
melting of the snowpack into the drainages so we are keeping a
close eye on the rapid warming and potential for rapid melting
that may create problems from the Dalton highway east.
Temperatures may reach into the 50s in some areas inland, while
temperatures along the coast will be moderated by the ice coverage
that generally remains in place east of Wainwright. Generally
light south winds to 10 mph will slowly swing to be east at 5 to
15 mph by late Friday.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Flood warning remains in place
for zone 210 around Deering, Flood Advisory that covers portions
of zone 207, 210, 211, and 212 continues with Flood Watches for
zone 208, and 217. The system is losing its punch, but looks like
it may throw one more before it goes away. Expect some rain or
showers this morning with the last punch, but amounts look to be
minor compared to the last couple days. No significant winds
expected the next couple days. Warming temperatures as the ridge
builds west over the Seward peninsula this weekend.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Warmer and Drier through Saturday,
then a little cooler Sunday and Monday. Winds kicked up a bit this
afternoon as low developed over the White mountains, low will be
moving to the upper Yukon flats so winds in the Tanana valley
should be lighter. Winds in the Alaska range passes are finally
calming down tonight, with the ridge building west we will not see
a repeat of the strong gusty winds for a few days, but winds
locally gusting to around 20 mph are not out of the question.
Temperatures will remain warm and well above normal with near
record high temperatures Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warmer and drier, but the winds area going to be
relatively light over the next few days. No discernible
thunderstorm threat through the weekend with the ridge overhead.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Heaviest rains have ended, but another shot of light
rain this morning is possible over the west coast. No updated
information overnight for the Deering area. Melting in the higher
elevations will continue through the weekend and will even be
enhanced as the temperatures warm. See the latest Warnings and
Advisories for updated information.

&&

.AFG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Flood Warning for AKZ210.

Flood Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212.

Flood Watch for AKZ208-AKZ217.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.

&&

SDB MAY 16