Small Craft Advisory 71, NWS Fairbanks, AK

682 
FZAK51 PAFG 131213
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
413 AM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-140315-
413 AM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE. 
A 1007 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR WRANGLE ISLAND BY THU MORNING.THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TO BANKS ISLAND BY SAT MORNING AND
DEEPEN TO 1000 MB.

$$

PKZ225-140315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
413 AM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.THU...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-140315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
413 AM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-140315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
413 AM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT.
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-140315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
413 AM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-140315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
413 AM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 5 KT BECOMING S. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

CF/LTH JUL 16

640 
FZAK51 PAFG 132259
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
259 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-141215-
259 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH
SLOPE. A 1000 MB LOW 600 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST TO BE 700 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION
POINT THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ225-141215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
259 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.THU...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-141215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
259 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-141215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
259 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-141215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
259 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-141215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
259 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

CCC/JK JUL 16

867 
FZAK51 PAFG 141149
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
349 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-150300-
349 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH
SLOPE THROUGH FRI MORNING. A 1002 MB LOW 600 NM NORTH OF
DEMARCATION POINT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST. A 1003 MB
LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA TONIGHT AND BE 320 NM NORTH OF BARROW FRI MORNING AT
998 MB WITH A WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST.

$$

PKZ225-150300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
349 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-150300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
349 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-150300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
349 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 30 KT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-150300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
349 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-150300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
349 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

LTH/RM JUL 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
139 PM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread both between
model families and from run to run continues to be minimal in the
short and mid range and reasonable in the long range however the
GFS operational model continues to offer one of the coldest
solutions for northern alaska in the long range as compared to
the other ensemble members.

Aloft a 580 DAM ridge of high pressure at 500 hpa continues to
build over northern alaska and will build to near 582 DAM
Wednesday and Thursday. These are exceptionally high heights for
northern alaska and will result in record and near record warmth
for much of interior Alaska Wednesday Thursday and Friday. Upper
80s and possibly lower 90s will manifest at the surface with a
record tying 88 forecast for Fairbanks Wednesday. The warmest
temperatures are expected in the Yukon Flats and middle Tanana
Valley Wednesday Thursday. Minimum Relative Humidities will
continue to drop into the 20s and 30s in the interior Wednesday
and Thursday but will rebound some Friday as moisture increases
ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the north. Will need
to monitor fire weather for near red flag conditions Wednesday and
Thursday over the interior for Temperatures and Low RH values
however it does not appear at this time that wind criteria will be
met Wednesday and Thursday. Will need to monitor closely Friday as
winds increase ahead of a strong front pushing into the interior
Friday evening and Saturday especially in the Yukon Flats.
Isolated thunderstorm activity will be confined to along the
Alaska Range Wednesday and confined south of the Alaska Range
Thursday.

A strong cold front will move south out of the high arctic onto
the northwest coast Friday morning and move over the brooks range
Friday evening. The strong cold front will plow into the interior
Saturday and will be the focal point for thunderstorms as the
front moves south and east. Will need to monitor for elevated surf
and potential for off shore ice to push on or near shore along the
northwest coast as moderate to strong on shore flow develops
behind the strong cold front Friday and continuing into Saturday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Monitor the northwest
coast for elevated surf and potential for ice to push on or near
shore beginning Friday and continuing into Saturday near Barrow
behind the strong cold front that is expected to push on shore
Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum Relative Humidities will continue to drop
into the 20s and 30s in the interior Wednesday and Thursday but
will rebound some Friday as moisture increases ahead of a strong
cold front approaching from the north. Will need to monitor fire
weather for near red flag conditions Wednesday and Thursday over
the interior for Temperatures and Low RH values however it does
not appear at this time that wind criteria will be met Wednesday
and Thursday. Will need to monitor closely Friday as winds increase
ahead of a strong front pushing into the interior Friday evening
and Saturday especially in the Yukon Flats. Isolated thunderstorm
activity will be confined to along the Alaska Range Wednesday and
confined south of the Alaska Range Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.
&&

CCC JUL 16