Small Craft Advisory 64, NWS Fairbanks, AK

358 
FZAK52 PAFG 031103
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
303 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-040215-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA...WEST COAST...AND CHUKCHI SEA AS A 1005 MB LOW MOVES
FROM THE GULF OF ANADYR TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY MON EVENING AND
DISSIPATES TUE EVENING.

$$

PKZ200-040215-
NORTON SOUND-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-040215-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-040215-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-040215-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

RM/RF JUL 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
108 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...Similar solutions in the short term with very little
spread. There is some disagreement on the location of the low
aloft over the southeast interior on Monday that may effect
convective activity. 02/12Z runs initialized well against the
02/18Z surface analysis. GFS and ECMWF spreading the
precipitation far and wide, so will lean toward the NAM solution
for the short term. They all have different ideas on where the
heaviest precipitation will fall over the next couple days, so
again will go with the NAM solution.

ALOFT...At 500 HPA...A shortwave swinging around a 524 dam low in
the high arctic will lie over the dateline this afternoon. A 542
dam low will develop over Wrangel Island tonight in the base of
the trough, then move south over the Gulf of Anadyr by Monday
morning at 547 dam as the trough expands south over the central
Bering Sea. As the low break off the trough it will move southeast
over the Pribilof Islands Tuesday afternoon, then over Bristol Bay
by Wednesday morning, and over the Gulf of Alaska by Thursday
morning. Weak ridging over the Brooks Range will persist, but be
pushed east as the trough digs south, then moves north over the
arctic as weak troughing develops over the interior on Monday. A
554 dam low over Yakutat will wobble around a bit through the
weekend, then move north over the AlCan border Monday to MacKenzie
Bay by Tuesday morning. Ridging will build north over the eastern
Bering Sea on Wednesday. AT 850 HPA...A little cooler as the warm
ridge that has been over the state continues to erode and move to
the northeast. Zero isotherm remains north of the arctic coast
this week.

SURFACE...Pretty benign pattern over mainland Alaska. A broad
area of low pressure dominates with a thermal trough over the
central and eastern interior, and the upper Tanana Valley. Not
expecting much change in the pattern except to see the trough move
north a bit to the upper Yukon flats and south slopes of the
Brooks range by Monday, then it drifts back to the south. Weak
ridging will persist over the Gulf of Alaska and ridging will
build east of the arctic coast today and persist over the coast
and near shore waters through Tuesday.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...A little bit of stratus around
Barrow and Atqasuk but just a small band that appears to be
dissipating. Should be partly cloudy this evening, then look for
some stratus to develop over the coastal areas tonight with areas
of fog. A cold front approaches the northwest coast, but it should
stay offshore and dissipate or slide north of the coast. No
significant winds expected in the short term, but they could get
gusty from Barrow west as the front move near the area. Not much
change in temperatures the next few days. A few showers in the
eastern Brooks range the next couple days.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Quiet along the coastal areas. A
few patches of stratus may disrupt things, but should be pretty
nice most of the time. Inland is a different story as isolated to
scattered thunderstorms and showers will prevail for most areas
through mid week. Highest concentration of thunderstorms and
showers will be south of Huslia. Some patchy morning fog will
also present some issues. Winds in most location will be light
and variable. Temperatures a degree or two cooler the next few
days.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Showers will prevail with some
isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings
through mid week. Rainfall amounts will vary greatly, but the
highest amounts appear to be in the eastern Alaska range at this
time. No significant winds. Temperatures a couple degrees cooler.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Unsettled wet and cool pattern will persist
across the southern and eastern Interior with afternoon relative
humidities remaining above 40 percent. Relatively drier conditions
elsewhere across Northern Alaska will give way to the cool...wet
unsettled pattern and increased afternoon relative humidities
Monday as an longwave trough moves over the Bering Sea and West
Coast.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible over Interior from Galena to
McGrath and east as well as the southeastern Brooks Range over the
next few days. Instability will increase Sunday afternoon and
evening to where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
over an area from Lake Minchumina to Tanana and east including the
Yukon Flats. There is the potential for scattered thunderstorms on
Monday over the southeastern Interior, Yukon Flats, and
southeastern Brooks Range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Quite a few locations showing rises of 1 to 3 feet
today, but all the gaged rivers are within banks. Another round of
heavy rain possible in the eastern Alaska range with a chance it
could move over the central Alaska range. Will be monitoring the
area rainfall and gages in case further action needs to be taken.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

&&

SDB JUL 16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
102 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

AKZ223>226-040200-
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY-DENALI-
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...
HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE...TOK...
TANACROSS...EAGLE...TETLIN...NORTHWAY...ALCAN...CHICKEN...
BOUNDARY...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
102 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...RAIN AND HIGH WATER THROUGH MONDAY...

RAIN THAT HAS BEEN FALLING ON AND OFF THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SO FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO
ALMOST 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECORDED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY...UPPER
TANANA VALLEY...GOODPASTER RIVER BASIN...AND ALASKA RANGE WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE.

RIVERS HAVE RISEN 1 TO 3 FEET IN SOME AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE AS RUNOFF MAKES IT INTO THOSE MAINSTEM RIVERS. AN ADDITIONAL
RISE IN RIVER LEVELS OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN
BANKS. EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE USED NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
THESE AREAS.

AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD POTENTIALLY SEE ROCK AND
MUD SLIDES IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH WATER.

FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FAIRBANKS.