Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2016

Small Craft Advisory 63, NWS Fairbanks, AK

June 30, 2016

NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this small craft advisory at Jun 30, 2016, 2:31 PM AKDT. It was in force for 37 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jun 30, 2016, 2:31 PM AKDT (22:31 UTC)
Expired
Jul 2, 2016, 3:28 AM AKDT
In force
37 hr
Issued by
NWS Fairbanks, AK

The text

As transmitted.

744 
FZAK51 PAFG 302231
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
231 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-011230-
231 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
AN ARCTIC FRONT FROM BARTER ISLAND TO BARROW WILL MOVE TO BARTER
ISLAND TO DEADHORSE NORTH BY 4PM FRI AND THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE
COAST SAT. A 1025 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL
MOVE EAST OVER BANKS ISLAND FRI. 



$$

PKZ225-011230-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
231 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-011230-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
231 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-011230-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
231 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-011230-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
231 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-011230-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
231 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

JUN 16
4 follow-up statements
481 
FZAK51 PAFG 011114
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
314 AM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-020215-
314 AM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
AN ARCTIC FRONT FROM BARTER ISLAND TO DEADHORSE NORTH WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE COAST SAT. 
$$

PKZ225-020215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
314 AM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-020215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
314 AM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-020215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
314 AM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-020215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
314 AM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-020215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
314 AM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

RM/RF JUL 16
336 
FZAK51 PAFG 011638 AAA
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
838 AM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

UPDATED ZONES 203 AND 204

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-020315-
838 AM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
AN ARCTIC FRONT FROM BARTER ISLAND TO DEADHORSE NORTH WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE COAST SAT. 
$$

PKZ225-020315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
838 AM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-020315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
838 AM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-020315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
838 AM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT.  
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. FOG. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT.  
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT.  
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-020315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
838 AM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG. VSBY LESS THAN 1NM.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT.  
.SUN...SE WINDS 10 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT.  
.MON...NW WINDS 25 KT.  
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-020315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
838 AM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. VSBY LESS THAN 1NM.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

RM/RF/JB JUL 16
506 
FZAK51 PAFG 012329
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
329 PM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-021215-
329 PM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
AN ARCTIC WARM FRONT FROM BARTER ISLAND TO DEADHORSE WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE COAST SAT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA
WILL MOVE EAST TO BARROW TO CAPE LISBURNE THEN WEST BY 4PM
SAT...TO DEADHORSE TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR POINT HOPE BY 4AM
SUN...AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY.


$$

PKZ225-021215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
329 PM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-021215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
329 PM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-021215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
329 PM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-021215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
329 PM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.SUN...SE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-021215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
329 PM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

JUL 16
336 
FZAK51 PAFG 021128
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
328 AM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-030230-
328 AM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE EAST TO
BARROW TO CAPE LISBURNE THEN WEST BY 4PM SAT AND THEN REMAIN
STATIONARY.

$$

PKZ225-030230-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
328 AM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-030230-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
328 AM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-030230-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
328 AM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING W. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-030230-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
328 AM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 2 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-030230-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
328 AM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

RM/RF JUL 16

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jun 30, 1:53 PM AKDT, 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 1:53 PM AKDT, 38 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
153 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A ridge of high pressure that stretches from NW Canada west
across Northern Alaska will slowly weaken through the weekend but
persist into next week. A low in the Gulf of Alaska will will
drift slowly east on the weekend. A series of short wave troughs
spinning NW from this low will move west across the Alaska Range
and Interior Alaska through the weekend. Bands of showers and
thunderstorms associated with these troughs will move west across
the southern Interior and Alaska Range through the weekend. The
highest moisture levels and strongest instability will be across
the Alaska Range and southern Interior and those areas will see
significant rain through the weekend. The heaviest rain will be in
SE interior and Alaska Range SE of Eagle to Big Delta to
Minchumina. Temperatures will remain near to just above normal
through the weekend.

A weak short wave trough from Mcgrath to Galena will move to
Bethel to Anvik late tonight. Scattered Thunderstorms with
frequent lighting and small hail are occuring along this trough
and will continue through tonight.

A second short wave trough from Beaver Creek to Eagle will move to
Denali to Coldfoot by 4am Fri and to McGrath to Huslia by 4pm Fri.
There are widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms that
will spread west with the trough through Fri. Showers will be
isolated to scattered over the northern Interior.

A third and stronger short wave trough over the southern Yukon
Territory will move to Glennallen to Northway by 4am Fri...to
Denali to Old Crow by 4pm Fri...to McGrath to Old Crow by 4am Sat
and to Telida to Fort Yukon by 4pm Sat. There will be heavy
showers with this trough across the southern Interior and Alaska
Range with isolated to scattered showers to the north.

A fourth short wave will rotate NE to the SE Interior and SE
Alaska Range on Sat and then persist through Sun. This will cause
more widespread showers over the SE Interior and SE Alaska Range
Sat into Sun.

Surface...
An Arctic front from Barter Island to Barrow will move to Barter
Island to Deadhorse north by 4pm Fri and then moving north of the
coast Sat. A 1025 mb high north of the eastern Arctic Coast will
move east over Banks Island Fri. Will see stratus and fog along
the Arctic front move north of the coast as the front moves north.

A 1020 mb high over the northern Bering Sea will persist through
Sat. This will cause winds to be NW along the West Coast of Alaska
and cause areas of stratus and fog over the southern Chukchi Sea
and the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island through Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models similar solutions at 500 mb through the weekend. Slight
differences in speed and location of short wave trough leads to
significant differences in location and amounts of precipitation
through the weekend. We went along with the GFS but smoothed out
the precipitation amounts with the NAM and EMCF. All models show
the heaviest rainfall tonight and Fri in the Alaska Range and that
makes the most sense at this point. There may be heavier rain
north of the Alaska Range but due to the convective nature it
cannot be pinpointed until convection occurs.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Significant number of lighting strikes occuring today across the
southern Interior. In the southern Interior RH will remain above
30% with significant rain. In the northern Interior Rh will drop
below 30% on the weekend with temperatures reaching near 80.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1 to 2 inches of rain likely through Fri southeast of Eagle to
Minchumina with the heaviest amounts in the Alaska Range with the
heaviest rain tonight and Fri. At this time it looks like most of
that area will get 1 to 2 inches of rain through Fri...but in the
Alaska Range a few locations could get as much as 3 inches. The
locations of the higher amounts is very uncertain due to the
convective nature of these events and rainfall amounts will need
to be watched closely. At this time no flooding is expected...but
small streams in the Alaska Range are expected to rise rapidly on
Fri with mudslides possible along steep slopes. Larger rivers
across the southeast Interior and Alaska Range will be rising
through the weekend as well.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB JUN 16

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 30, 2:14 PM AKDT, 17 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
214 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

AKZ223>226-020030-
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY-DENALI-
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...
HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE...TOK...
TANACROSS...EAGLE...TETLIN...NORTHWAY...ALCAN...CHICKEN...
BOUNDARY...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
214 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

...HEAVY RAINS IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SEVERAL BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY...THE DELTA JUNCTION
AREA...AND THE ALASKA RANGE INCLUDING DENALI PARK. LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ALASKA RANGE.

THESE RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO RISE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY...THE
DELTA JUNCTION AREA...AND THE ALASKA RANGE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE ALASKA RANGE WHERE SMALL STREAMS COULD RISE
RAPIDLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH FRIDAY.

PEOPLE VENTURING INTO THE ABOVE AREAS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPIDLY RISING STREAMS AND RIVERS
AS WELL AS POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES ALONG STEEP SLOPES.

FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FAIRBANKS.

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.