Small Craft Advisory 53, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1156 AM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. The GFS, ECMWF and NAM all
have a good handle on current weather picture and all depict
minimal spread between model families and are in good agreement
with previous model runs. Minimal spread noted in the short range
and mid range on precip location and intensity. Model spread is
also reasonable in the long range.

Aloft, at 500 hpa, a long wave trough with a 544 dam low
currently centered between St Matthew Island and Nunivak Island
will weaken to around 550 dam and split into two lows with one
moving northeast to near Galena by Monday morning and then near
Bettles as a 555 dam low Monday evening. The second upper level
low moves east to near Cape Newenham as a 555 dam low Monday
morning and weakens to a trough with axis along a Bettles to
Anchorage line Monday evening. This broad trough moving east into
the central interior out of the west coast and western interior is
well reflected at 700 hpa as well as 850 hpa. Deep layer southwest
flow ahead of the trough will bring significant moisture over a
large portion of northern Alaska to the west of a Fairbanks to
Fort Yukon to Old Crow Yukon line. 48 hour precip totals through
Tuesday morning are generally around one half inch, however totals
in excess of one and a half inches are noted over much of the
Brooks Range and adjacent plains on the North Slope as well as the
western Alaska Range. Will need to monitor rises on small streams
especially in the Brooks Range where expected rainfall will
combine with mountain snow pack melt off. Moderate chinook
downslope flow will limit precip totals to the east of the
Fairbanks to Fort Yukon to Old Crow line.

The upper level trough continues to move to the east and will be
located along a Barrow to Bettles to Cordova line Tuesday and along
the Canadian border Tuesday night. An upper level ridge builds
north and east out of the eastern Bering Sea into western Alaska
Tuesday and Wednesday with a return to warm and dry conditions
expected over the west coast and the western interior Wednesday
and over the central interior Thursday.

On the North Slope, the low ceilings, fog and showers expected to
continue as low over the yk delta continues to move north and east
into the Brooks Range and produces on shore flow. Rain picks up
Monday evening as low moves into the Brooks Range.

On the west coast and western interior ongoing rain over the YK Delta
will expand north and east today and continue into Monday night
before transitioning to rain showers that will continue into
Tuesday. Storm total rainfall around one half inch is expected
through Tuesday morning with local amounts in excess of one and a
half inches expected in the Brooks Range and the Western Alaska
Range. Continue to monitor for rises on small streams.

In the central and eastern interior ongoing wind advisories
continue to verify with 50 to 60 mph wind gusts through the Alaska
Range passes. Expect the winds to diminish this evening as
strongest winds aloft pass to the north and as surface gradient
across the Alaska Range collapses. Mid and high level clouds have
overrun much of the central and eastern interior limiting todays
high temperatures. Ongoing Red Flag Warning for zone 226 will
continue into this evening with winds diminishing later this
evening and RH levels expected to recover. Temperatures, RH
levels and winds will be very near Red Flag Criteria over the
upper Tanana Valley through this evening. Continue to monitor.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Ongoing Red Flag Warning for zone 226 will continue into this
evening with winds diminishing later this evening and RH levels
expected to recover. Temperatures, RH levels and winds will be
very near Red Flag Criteria over the upper Tanana Valley through
this evening. Continue to monitor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ongoing rain over the YK Delta will expand north and east into
the rest of the west coast and western interior today and continue
into Monday night before transitioning to rain showers that will
continue into Tuesday. Storm total rainfall around one half inch
is expected through Tuesday morning with local amounts in excess
of one and a half inches expected in the Brooks Range and the
Western Alaska Range. Continue to monitor for rises on small
streams.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Red Flag Warning for AKZ226.
&&

CCC JUN 16