Small Craft Advisory 45, NWS Fairbanks, AK

296 
FZAK51 PAFG 161109
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
309 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-170215-
309 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR BARROW WILL MOVE TO 150 NM N OF DEADHORSE
THEN DRIFTS N AS A 1016 MB HIGH OVER THE CANADA MERGES WITH
IT...THE CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA NEAR BANKS
ISLAND BY SAT MORNING. A 1007 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ225-170215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
309 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-170215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
309 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-170215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
309 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. FOG.
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-170215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
309 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-170215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
309 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 1 FT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SDB/LTH JUN 16

020 
FZAK51 PAFG 162158
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
158 PM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-171300-
158 PM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1025 MB HIGH 150 NM N OF DEADHORSE WILL DRIFT EAST.  A 1007 MB
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY
FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ225-171300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
158 PM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-171300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
158 PM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SUN...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-171300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
158 PM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-171300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
158 PM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-171300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
158 PM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
3 FT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

RM/RF JUN 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
104 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Current model runs from the Jun 15/12Z forecast cycle are in good
agreement out through Friday with only minor differences Friday
night and Saturday.

Upper levels...
A strong upper level ridge has become established over the northern
Alaska mainland. The ridge axis extends eastern Siberia to the
Seward Peninsula then southward to the Alaska Peninsula. The ridge
will shift slowly northward and eastward through Friday. The ridge
axis Friday afternoon will extend from the Chukchi Sea to
Fairbanks and southeastward into the eastern Gulf of Alaska. The
ridge will be pushed eastward into the Yukon Territory by Saturday
afternoon as the first of two short wave troughs sweeps northeastward
across the mainland. The first short wave trough is now moving
eastward across Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula and will
gradually decrease in amplitude as it moves northeastward across
the mainland tonight through Saturday. A second short wave trough
will move eastward to the Bristol Bay area by late Saturday night
then weaken as it moves across the mainland Sunday into Monday.
Under the upper level ridge, 850 mb temperatures from +10 to +16
degrees Celsius will cover much of the northern Alaska Mainland,
with the warmest temperatures over the interior. 850 mb temperatures
will cool substantially as the first short wave trough moves
northeastward and pushes the warm ridge eastward into Canada. An
upper low center near 56N/178E in the western Bering Sea will move
on a wobbly track to St Lawrence Island by Friday evening.

Surface...
A 1025 mb high centered 150 miles west of Icy Cape will move
to 100 miles north of Barter Island by Thursday evening, then
weaken to 1017 mb as it moves eastward into the lower Mackenzie
River region by Friday morning. A 1008 mb low will develop over
the lower Yukon valley Thursday afternoon, then deepen to a 999 mb
low center 50 miles north of Gambell by Friday afternoon, with a
trough extend eastward into the western and central Brooks Range.

Arctic Slope...
Skies will likely remain cloudy or mostly cloudy into Thursday
morning. Clearing will be likely over most inland areas Thursday
as the upper ridge moves northeast. Central and eastern coastal
area may see some decrease in cloud cover. Interior areas will
likely experience warm temperatures Thursday and Friday with highs
in the 60s to mid 70s. Cooler temperatures will return Saturday as
the upper ridge gets swept off to the east and is replaced by a
moist southwest flow. Rain or showers likely developing over the
extreme western areas by Friday evening, spreading east to almost
all areas by Sunday afternoon. Total rain amounts up to 0.25 inch
may occur in a few areas.

Central and eastern interior...
Under the upper ridge, mostly clear skies with very warm temperatures
are expected Thursday and Friday, with warm temperatures lingering
near the Alcan Border Saturday. High temperatures will range from
the mid 70s to mid 80s over many areas. High temperatures will be
substantially cooler Saturday as the warm ridge aloft pushes
eastward into the Yukon Territory and is replaced with a cooler
southwest flow. High temperatures Saturday into early next week
will likely be near or a few degrees below seasonal normals.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the northeast interior
Saturday afternoon in an area of weakly unstable air in advance
of the incoming short wave trough.

West coast and western interior...
Warm temperatures will continue over inland areas Thursday, and
over the middle Yukon valley, Kobuk and Noatak valleys and the
western Brooks Range Friday. Temperatures at coastal locations
may be influenced by local wind flow and the presence or absence
of maritime stratus, with sea breezes possible during the
afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures are expected over the
southern parts of the west coast and western interior Friday as
the first short wave trough advances northeastward. Cooler
temperatures will spread to all areas by Saturday. GOES satellite
visual imaging shows low stratus covering almost all of Norton
Sound and adjacent coastal areas. Patchy stratus over southern
inland areas of the Seward Peninsula will likely burn off this
afternoon but may reform again later tonight. Stratus also covers
some coastal area north and west of Nome and along much of the
Chukchi Sea coast. Rain or showers will will develop in the Yukon
delta area later Thursday night and spread northward to the Seward
Peninsula and southern west coast areas by Friday afternoon and
over almost all west coast and western interior areas Friday night
as the first short wave trough swings northeastward. Total rain
amounts are expected to be 0.1 to 0.25 inch in most areas, a few
areas may see 0.25 to 0.5 inch. Ahead of the advancing short wave
trough, isolated thunderstorms are expected over the lower Kobuk
and Noatak valleys and nearby areas Thursday afternoon and evening
in an an area of unstable air, aided by synoptic scale lift from
the approaching short wave trough. GFS model run indicates
surface-500 mb lifted index values to -2 with surface CAPES to
200-250 J/kg.

Extended outlook...
GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means indicate a mainly westerly quasi-
progressive pattern. A few periods of rain or showers will be
possible, temperatures are expected to average near seasonal
normals.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very warm and dry conditions over most of the western interior
through Friday and over all of the central and eastern interior
areas through Friday. Minimum RH in most areas Thursday and Friday
will be less than 30 percent and as low as 20 percent. Afternoon
temperature and RH values will exceed red flag thresholds but
surface winds are expected to remain light on Thursday. Winds
in central and western interior areas Friday might be just
enough to reach red flag criteria in a few areas, but no fire
weather weather watches will be issued at this time. We
will re-evaluate this tomorrow. Widespread rains are expected on
the west coast and in the western interior after the current warm
and dry period ends. Wetting rains may occur in many areas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No problem areas. Stages on the Chena, Salcha and Goodpaster
rivers are continuing to fall after their crests caused by recent
rains. No rainfall is expected in these river basins through
Friday, and at most a chance of light rain Saturday. Widespread
general rains are expected in the west coast and Arctic regions
with the incoming short wave trough, but expected rain amounts
will not be large enough to create hydrologic issues.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small craft advisory for PKZ230.

&&

RF JUN 16