Small Craft Advisory 41, NWS Fairbanks, AK

695 
FZAK52 PAFG 131150
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
350 AM AKDT MON JUN 13 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-140300-
350 AM AKDT MON JUN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE WILL MOVE EAST AND
SOUTH ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE SE BERING SEA TONIGHT WITH RIDGING BUILDING N INTO
THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ200-140300-
NORTON SOUND-
350 AM AKDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-140300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
350 AM AKDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-140300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
350 AM AKDT MON JUN 13 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-140300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
350 AM AKDT MON JUN 13 2016

.TODAY...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

CCC/NTS JUN 16

063 
FZAK52 PAFG 132207
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
207 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-141315-
207 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE WILL MOVE EAST AND
SOUTH ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SE BERING SEA TONIGHT WITH RIDGING BUILDING N
INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ200-141315-
NORTON SOUND-
207 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TUE...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-141315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
207 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-141315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
207 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-141315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
207 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

CF/DA JUN 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
102 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...Agreement continues to be good in the short term with
improved agreement in the extended periods. Models did a fairly
good job with the rain event last night with the heaviest
rainfall areas handled quite well. Will use a blend of the models
and just nudge the current forecast database to maintain
continuity and coverage areas of the precipitation.

ALOFT...At 500 HPA...A 553 dam high over the eastern Brooks range
will weaken and drift into the col over the central interior
tonight. A 543 dam low over the northeast Gulf of Alaska will
move southeast over the Queen Charlotte islands by Monday
afternoon. A 558 dam high will develop over the east central Yukon
territory and drift into the central Yukon territory with ridging
extending southwest over Prince William Sound by Tuesday morning.
a 520 dam low 200 northeast of Wrangel Island will move northeast
to 400 nm north of Barrow by Monday morning and into the high
arctic by early Tuesday morning. A shortwave associated with the
arctic low is over the Chukotsk peninsula and will move to the
northwest coast this evening and by Monday morning will lie from
the low over Wainwright to Bethel, and by Monday evening over
Nuiqsut to McGrath,then Tuesday from Deadhorse to Anchorage, and
Tuesday night it will be over the yukon territory and the AlCan
border in the upper Tanana valley. Ridging builds north over the
southwest coast Tuesday and the bering strait on Wednesday while
also spreading east over the Alaska range on Wednesday. AT 850
HPA...Slow cooling trend across the area with all areas falling
below 10 Celsius. Cold front moving over the northwest coast will
push the zero isotherm south to lie from Nuiqsut to Kotzebue then
west by Monday morning, then by Tuesday it will mainly lie along
the crest of the Brooks range with temperatures around 5 below
celsius over the Barrow area.

SURFACE...Pretty benign pattern again today over the interior
with no major features over the mainland. Weak trough remains
across the middle of the state under the upper level col and will
persist into Monday. Weak cyclonic flow can be seen in the over
the interior on satellite and radar. Another wave associated with
the low aloft over the Gulf of Alaska will make its way north over
the alaska range and into the Tanana valley spreading more rain to
the area. The GFS and ECMWF indicate that rainfall will be in
roughly the same areas tonight that it was last night, while the
NAM has the heaviest rainfall along the Parks Highway corridor.
Will lean more to the GFS and ECMWF as the trough aloft appears to
be to the east of Fairbanks tonight. Up north the cold front will
be moving over the northwest coast anytime then slowly works its
way east with front dragging along the crest of the Brooks range.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Partly cloudy over the eastern
arctic and warm today, but that will change over the next 24
hours. Cold front will spread an assortment of snow and rain
across the arctic and Brooks range the next couple days. Areas
along the coast from Point Hope to Cape Halkett will likely see
some accumulating snow overnight with up to 2 inches
possible, then a mix of rain and snow Monday. East of Cape Halkett
expect mainly rain as they have slightly warmer temperatures. They
could still see some snow mix with the rain Monday night with no
accumulation. Temperatures will remain on the roller coaster as
the front moves through with a warming trend beginning Tuesday
afternoon. Winds generally south to west at 5 to 15 mph.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Some scattered showers this
evening, mainly over the middle Yukon valley. The front moving in
from the northwest will spread some showers to the Chukchi Sea and
Kotzebue Sound regions overnight, and continue to spread shower to
the south and east through Monday. Clearing on Tuesday as the
front moves to the east. winds generally southwest to northwest at
5 to 15 mph through Monday. No significant change in temperatures
except a bit cooler from Kotzebue Sound north Monday then warming
Tuesday.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Showers developing again this
evening with rain overnight. Looks like another quarter to half in
of rain for most areas with up to an inch of additional rain in
the Chena, Salcha, and Goodpaster river basins. Temperatures a bit
cooler with the cloudy conditions. Winds will generally be light.
The atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was yesterday from
Livengood south so do not expect any thunderstorms there, it
remains unstable in the area north of Livengood so isolated
thunderstorms are expected in that area.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...No fire weather concerns the next 48-hrs.
Relative humidity values have dipped below 35 percent as of 12 PM
across portions of the southeastern Brooks Range and two-eastern
thirds of the arctic foothills. Both areas are expected to see
sites report minimum rh values sub-30 percent. Clouds will limit
temperatures with highs predominantly topping out in the 60s. No
lightning activity has been observed yet, however, isolated
thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of the central and
northern interior north of a line from Manley Hot Springs to
Livengood to Central this afternoon and evening. Best chances for
wetting rains will be in the middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and
Tanana Flats-Fortymile Country the rest of today and overnight.

Attention turns towards mid-week when a drying and warming trend
is expected to take hold across Western Alaska and the Interior.
Temperatures are expected to break 70 F Wednesday as a ridge aloft
builds and moves over the western AK mainland Tuesday and
Wednesday coincident with surface high pressure building across
the Interior. Likewise, minimum rh values will be declining with
drying continuing into the end of the work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Quite a bit more rainfall than expected east of
Fairbanks in the Salcha river basin, Upper Chena river basin, and
Goodpaster river basin. Rainfall amounts range from 0.50 to nearly
1.50 inches over the past 24 hours. Rivers will be on the rise as
the runoff makes it downstream. Rises of 2 to 4 feet over the
next 36 hours are possible on the above mentioned rivers. The
goodpaster has already recorded a rise of 3 feet today. Another
inch of rain is also possible in those areas again tonight so will
need to closely monitor the precipitation and river gages in those
areas. There where some heavier rains in the Nulato hills Saturday
night, but no hydro issues are expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.

&&

SDB JUN 16