Small Craft Advisory 32, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
336 AM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...Good run to run continuity. Still performing well and
consistent in the short term on location of the major features,
but struggling beyond 60 hours. The 06Z surface analysis
initialized well against the 05/00Z solutions. Will use an equal
blend of the models for the short term.

ALOFT...At 500 HPA...573 dam high 200 nm southwest of wrangel
island will move southeast to 200 northwest of the Gulf of Anadyr
by early Monday then move slowly south and west. A 535 dam low
will developed near Barrow earlier this morning and is moving west
to 50 nm north of Deadhorse this morning before moving back
northeast to be 300 nm north of Demarcation Point by Monday
morning, and into the high arctic Monday evening. A 538 Dam low
will develop in the longwave trough over Bettles this afternoon
and continue to drop south over the Lake Clark area by Monday
afternoon at 542 dam, and over Kodiak Island at 547 dam by Tuesday
morning. a 546 dam low over the south central Gulf of Alaska will
move over Cordova early Monday morning, and over Mayo Yukon at 544
dam by Monday afternoon. A col will develop over the central and
eastern interior Monday night and be pushed east as the long wave
trough starts rotating east. A rapidly moving and strengthening
low and trough will move from high in the russian arctic over the
northwest coast late Tuesday. AT 850 HPA...Zero isotherm will be
dragged south today and lie from Komakuk Beach Yukon to Coldfoot
to Buckland to Point Hope this afternoon, and from Old Crow to
Anvik to Point Lay by Monday morning, then starts moving back
north. By Tuesday morning the zero isotherm will only be over the
northwest coast as warmer air surges north.

SURFACE...a 997 mb low has moved to 50 nm north of Deadhorse this
morning with a cold front moving south over the western interior
this morning. The front will merge with the trough that has been
waffling around over the interior and Alaska range the last
couple days. The low will move north this evening into the
Beaufort Sea with the front lying from Komakuk Beach yukon to
Tanana to Bethel this afternoon, and by Monday morning will lie
from Eagle to Nenana to Bethel, then becomes stationary of the
north slopes of the Alaska range through at least mid week. A 1020
mb high will move across Wrangel Island this morning into the
Chukchi Sea with ridging spreading east over the arctic coast
through the evening and a 1013 mb high developing over the arctic
plain and moving over Prudhoe Bay by Monday afternoon, and over
the northern Yukon territory by Tuesday morning. A relatively
strong cold front will move to the northwest coast early Tuesday
morning and move across the arctic Tuesday.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Rain already spreading east across
the coast and in the western areas turning to snow. Some snow
accumulation expected with up to 2 inches in the coastal areas and
plains and possibly 5 inches in the Brooks range with good upslope
component. By late tonight the snow and rain will end, with just
some lingering flurries. High pressure building across the area
with onshore flow overnight. Not expecting much change in the
stratus over the area, and areas of fog on the coast. Winds behind
the front are in the 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph range and they
will taper down in the evening as the ridging builds over the
area. Temperatures cooling off as the front moves south of the
Brooks range today, then warming from the west Monday evening.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Most of the coastal areas will
be spared from any precipitation. Inland areas however will see
showers moving north to south across the area today. Isolated
thunderstorms south of Ruby and Anvik this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms on Monday will be confined to the western Alaska
range. Primarily north winds today, and they will be a bit gusty
to around 25 mph in some areas with and behind the front, then
taper down this evening. Some cooling temperatures today as the
front works south, then a warming trend Monday into mid week.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Expect Showers and isolate
thunderstorms developing over most of the area by early afternoon
as the front from the north merges with the trough over the
interior. Stability indices are good for at least isolated
thunderstorms, possibly scattered, to the east of Fairbanks and
Beaver. Still seeing some rainfall amounts approaching an inch in
the Alaska range, but precipitation is pretty showery so do not
expect any large areas with those amounts at this time. A little
cooler today over most of the area with cloudy conditions and some
cooler air moving south. Winds generally light, but the could be
some gusty winds with the front and some of the showers and
thunderstorms today.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and isolated thunderstorms, with some
cooler temperatures moving south over the western interior will
help inhibit any fire growth in the area. Thunderstorms will be
wet. Some gusty conditions with the front and the thunderstorms,
but they are not expected to last long. Relative humidity values
up a bit today with excellent recovery over the forecast area
tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Still seeing some heavier rainfall amounts in the
western Alaska range, but have not heard of any issue for
significant rainfall in the area so will just keep an eye on the
area. Most of the rainfall will taper off by Monday night so not
seeing any issues for later in the week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

&&

SDB JUN 16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
908 AM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

AKZ206-060000-
NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...ANAKTUVUK PASS...ATIGUN PASS...GALBRAITH LAKE...
SAGWON...FRANKLIN BLUFFS
908 AM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT...

SNOW IS NOW FALLING ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE BROOKS RANGE WITH 3 TO
5 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
ABOVE 3000 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE INCLUDING ATIGUN
PASS.

BELOW 2000 FEET...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND ACCUMULATION OF
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SINCE MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL
MELT AFTER IT HITS THE GROUND.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1049 AM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

AKZ222-060000-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...
NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...
CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP
1049 AM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...GUSTY WINDS TODAY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA...

SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NOW 10 TO 20 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS 35 MPH NEAR
SHOWERS IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
TANANA VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE QUARTER
INCH INCH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 4PM TODAY.