Small Craft Advisory 255, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
218 PM AKST Thu Nov 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of ridge over western Canada and
Northern Alaska with a trough over the NE Russia and the Bering
Sea will persist into next week. A series of short wave troughs
will move northeast across the Bering Sea in this pattern. This
will cause windy and wet weather along the west coast of Alaska
through the weekend. The Interior and North Slope of Alaska will
be generally dry with near normal temperatures through the
weekend.

A short wave trough stretching from Denali to Barter Island will
move to McGrath to Arctic Village by 3pm Fri and then slowly
weaken in place. Areas of stratus...fog and flurries along and
east of this trough that will remain into Sat but with a slight
decrease in areal coverage.

Surface...
A 979 mb low over Northern Kamchatka will drift north and weaken
through Fri. A strong occluded front stretching northeast from
this low to Anadyr to the southeast Bering Sea will move to
Provideniya to Nunivak Island by 3am Fri...to the western Bering
Strait to the Yukon Delta by 3pm Fri...to the Bering Strait to
Anvil by 3am Sat...and then dissipating along a Bering Strait to
McGrath line by 3pm Sat. Will see mix of rain and snow with this
feature over St Lawrence Island and the Yukon Delta along with SE
winds of 30-40kt. Will see above normal surf over zone 213
tonight through Fri night due to those winds. Winds and
precipitation will diminish as the front moves north and east
Fri...with precipitation changing to all snow as it moves
onshore.

High pressure over Interior Alaska will move over the Yukon
Territory tonight and Fri. This will cause easterly Drainage winds
down the Tanana and Yukon Valleys tonight and Fri.

Another low into the SE Bering Sea Sat. This will cause NE winds
to increase across the eastern Bering Sat night and Sun.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
models initialize well and show similar solutions through
Sat...then start to see significant differences on the strength
and location of the next incoming short wave in the Gulf of Alaska
Sun. At this point we are using the GFS as it has the best
continuity when compared with the other models.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ225.
&&

JB NOV 16