Small Craft Advisory 249, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
142 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consisting of a trough over the Bering Sea
and a ridge over NW Canada and Mainland Alaska will persist into
the weekend. Several short wave troughs will move east into this
ridge.

One short wave trough stretching from Point Hope to McGrath will
move to Point Lay to Denali by 3am Wed...to Barrow to Denali by
3pm Wed...to Deadhorse to Denali by 3am Thu...and then weakening
along a Barter Island to Denali line by 3pm Thu.

Expect isolated to scattered snow showers over the Interior and
North Slope east of the trough...and widespread showers along the
trough. Expect one inch or less of snow with this feature. Will
see minor clearing west of the trough.

Surface...
A 1012 mb low 300 nm northwest of Barrow will move to 250 nm north
of Barrow as a 1021 mb low by 3pm Wed and then weaken. This will
follow the trough aloft.

High pressure will build over Interior Alaska tonight and Wed.
This will cause low clouds and fog to appear in the areas that
clear out behind the trough aloft tonight.

A 998 mb low in the central Bering Sea will move to 200 nm west of
Gambell as a 1010 mb low by 3pm Wed. A warm front stretching east
from this low will move to the Chukotsk Peninsula and form a wave
low the by 3am Wed and stretch to the Bering Strait and to the YK
Delta...then forming 1010 mb wave low near Wrangel Island by 3pm
Wed with a warm front from the low to Kotzebue...then the warm
front moving to Red Dog to Wainwright and northwest by 3am Thu.
Will see snow with the front with 1-2 inches along the west coast
tonight through Wed night. Will also see SE winds of 25-35kt
along the front. This will cause briefly low visibility in blowing
snow but with temperatures near 30 do not expect widespread
blizzard. Will issue Advisory for blowing snow in zones 213 and
211 for tonight and for Point Hope area of 207 Wed.

A second and stronger low in the Sea of Okhotsk will move to into
the far western Bering Sea Thu and Fri. A weather front stretching
east from this low will move into the western Bering Sea Wed and
to Anadyr to the eastern Aleutians by 3pm Thu...and to the YK
Delta to St Lawrence Island by 3pm Fri. Expect 1-2 inches of snow
with this front along with southeast gales.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well except for h500 heights being too low at
Kodiak and over the Gulf of Alaska. Show similar solutions through
Thu pm...then see a difference in the speed of short waves Fri
into the weekend. Favor the GFS at this point through Sat.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...elevated surf possible St
Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Thu and Fri.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB NOV 16