Small Craft Advisory 235, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1209 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread is minimal
in the short range and is very reasonable in both the mid range as
well as the extended range.

Aloft at 500 HPA, a long wave trough over the eastern Bering Sea
and western Alaska will remain in place as a large amplitude ridge
stretching from near California northward into the Northwest
Territories retrogrades slowly westward nudging into the
southeastern interior Wednesday and building westward into the
central and western interior Thursday. A strong front rotating
around a 496 DAM low over the northern pacific thursday morning
will accompany a short wave moving northwest along the negatively
tilted ridge over the yukon thursday and friday over the eastern
interior. Down sloping flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere
will limit precipitation over the upper and middle Tanana Valley
however as the wave moves north of Fairbanks expect snow fall to
increase especially over the central and eastern Brooks Range
late Thursday and into Friday where several inches of snow are
forecast. Lt snow or flurries are possible through the Tanana
Valley including Fairbanks late Thursday and Friday as the front
passes. Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend
with warm southerly flow over the central and eastern interior and
will fall back closer to seasonal averages over the western
interior and west coast as well as the North Slope.

On the surface, a 992 mb low currently located over the McKenzie
Delta will north and east to be near Banks Island Wednesday. A
lee side trough develops over the southern Interior wednesday and
will help enhance weak chinook flow wednesday and thursday. Expect
gusty gap winds to develop Wednesday and continue into Thursday.
The remnants of an occluded front combined with a short wave
aloft will move into the southeastern interior late Thursday
evening and into the central interior Friday morning. Expect light
snow or flurries south of Fairbanks and several inches of snow
to accumulate to the north of Fairbanks as weak drying downslope
flow diminishes. A secondary low develops near the Great Bear Lake
and will enhance the snow fall over the eastern Brooks Range and
eastern North Slope.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
Will need to monitor the north shore of St Lawrence Island
Thursday and Friday as Gale force north winds buffet the northern
Bering Sea.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ245.
&&

CCC NOV 16