Small Craft Advisory 231, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1114 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread remains
small through the short range and mid range out to about 72
hours. Model spread increases considerably past that point.

Aloft at 500 hpa a deep upper level low exists over the Kamchatka
Peninsula and a well defined ridge exists over the central Bering
Sea. Another deep upper level low exists over the northern
pacific. A ridge exists over the west coast of north America and
extends north into British Columbia and the Yukon. A trough
extends south from an upper level low currently located 200 nm
north of Barrow and extends southward over west central Alaska and
into the low in over the Northern Pacific. Overunning southerly
winds over the arctic front over the central interior will create
light snow primarily north of Fairbanks today over the central and
eastern interior. The upper level low in the northern pacific
nudges north slightly Monday and Tuesday as the upper level ridge
over the yukon builds west over the eastern interior today and
over the central interior Monday. A decrease in clouds and
precipitation will be noted over the eastern and central interior
as the high pressure system builds to the west and the weak
overunning diminishes. Temperatures will warm slowly through the
middle of the week over the central interior from around minus 9 C
at 850 HPA to minus 5 C Monday and Tuesday to near zero Wednesday
as a warmer airmass moves north. Fresh snow cover combined with
light winds and clearing skies will provide strong radiational
cooling however with warming temperatures aloft expect valley
inversions over the interior to strengthen.

On the surface the area of light snow over the central interior
from Fairbanks north will continue to diminish and move to the
north today. A 970 mb low over the northern Kamchatka Peninsula
will move east into the central Bering Sea as a 965 mb low in the
northern pacific drifts north into the Gulf of Alaska through
Tuesday. A strong front rotating around the low in the Gulf of
Alaska will push on shore Monday night and Tuesday morning. A weak
trough moves over the central interior as the front dissipates
over the Alaska Range. The heaviest precipitation with this system
is expected to remain south of the Alaska Range.

A deep low moves north out of the northern pacific Wednesday and
merges with the low in the Gulf of Alaska. Another strong front
pushed on shore along the southern coast of Alaska Thursday
morning. A trough rotating around the low in the Gulf of Alaska
will increase the gradient along the Alaska Range. Gap winds are
expected to develop Wednesday night as a lee side trough develops
over the southern interior. Some moisture makes it over the Alaska
Range Thursday night and Friday. Snow is expected to develop over
the eastern Brooks Range and eastern north slope Thursday night
and Friday as a low develops rapidly over the northern Yukon and
Mckenzie Delta region.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

CCC NOV 16