Small Craft Advisory 210, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

corrected hazards

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Continue the trend of doing quite well in the short term
and initializing well against the latest surface analysis. Still
some divergence in the midrange and extended periods so we are
leaning a bit more toward the ECMWF as we go out in time. Still
some timing differences in the shortwaves in the near term, but
using a blend has done well the last couple days so will continue
that method. A possible end to the active weather pattern over
the Bering Sea and west coast coming early next week as models are
trending away from the Ridge of the mainland and trough over the
Bering Sea that has been in place for quite a while now. Will lean
on a blend of the current database and latest model guidance as
mentioned for the short term.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridge continues to build north over the
eastern interior with 549 dam height reaching over Barter Island
by Saturday morning. A 492 dam low over the northwest Bering Sea
will move north into Siberia by Saturday morning and weaken. A
sharp trough moving over the west coast will slowly work east
through Saturday as it weakens and dissipates. A 500 dam low will
develop near Wrangel Island, and eventually absorb the low over
Siberia as it move west over the Siberian coast. Another shortwave
will lie just south of the area Sunday morning and move through
the area during the day. A 501 dam low will move to the central
Aleutians by Sunday morning and over the Pribilof Islands by
Sunday evening, then slowly works north over St Matthew Island by
Monday evening. At 850 hpa...A patch of above Zero temperatures
moves in with the front and pushes temperatures to around 4 above
Celsius in a few places. But things will cool right back down over
the west coast. Models are keeping the above zero temperatures
over the eastern half of the state under the ridge, but eventually
push them back to the west as the ridge starts to negatively tilt
Monday.

Surface...High pressure continues over the central and eastern
interior as strong weather front moves up the west coast tonight
followed by another low moving to the Pribilof Islands by early
Monday. The low then moves slowly to the northwest to be in the
Gulf of Anadyr by Tuesday morning. The associated weather front
lies from the Gulf of Anadyr to St Lawrence Island to Sand Point
this afternoon and will move to lie from the northern Chukotsk
Peninsula to Buckland to western Kodiak Island by Saturday
morning, and stalls up against the ridge in the western interior
Saturday afternoon. The high pressure over the interior will
build to the northwest as well. Trough remains over the arctic
coast. Ridging will persist over the northeast arctic as high
pressure pushes south from a 1041 mb high over the North Pole.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Active pattern over the northwest
coast and Chukchi Sea through Saturday. Strong winds already
developing west of Wainwright as a weather front moves out of the
Bering Sea through the Chukchi Sea, then into the arctic. Cloudy
conditions west of Deadhorse, and stratus along the coast.
Looking like mainly a mix of snow and rain tonight but there is
potential for some freezing rain on the northwest coast overnight.
Strong winds on the northwest coast tonight west of Point Lay will
be gusting to around 55 mph, for the remainder of the area winds
pick up with gusts around 45 mph near Point Lay and gusts to
around 30 mph as far east as Barrow. Winds direction will be
southeast to southwest.

West Coast and Western Interior...Already very windy and that will
continue through most of the night as the system moves north. High
Surf will be an issue in the outer coastal areas the next 36 to 48
hours. Storm surge guidance keeps all areas below 5.5 feet of
surge, but combined with the elevated wave action cresting near
shore erosion is probable for some areas. Heavy rains at time this
evening as the front moves through. May mix with snow at times,
but no significant accumulation of snow is expected with the
exception of areas in the south slopes of the western Brooks
Range. Temperatures warming with the front, then a cooling trend
starting Sunday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear this evening with some
high clouds moving into the area tonight. The front in the Bering
Sea will move inland to the western interior by Saturday morning
and stall bringing a chance of snow, rain, or freezing rain to
areas west of Fairbanks. Stratus in the upper Tanana valley is
eroding and moving east in the Yukon this evening. Strong winds
gusting through the gaps in the Alaska range and around Delta
Junction up to 45 mph tonight diminishing Saturday morning.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...High Surf potential on St
Lawrence Island Monday as a low moves northwest to the Gulf of
Anadyr.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory FOR AKZ217.

High Surf Advisory FOR AKZ211-AKZ213.

Freezing Rain Advisory FOR AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ221-AKZ227.

High Wind Warning FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213-
AKZ214.

Small Craft Advisory FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ235.

Storm Warning FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

SDB OCT 16