Small Craft Advisory 177, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...The models are in good agreement in the short term
and are handling the overall weather pattern well. The big
forecast challenge for this evening will be the fast moving
weather front that will continue to move across the state this
evening.

Aloft...A trough at 500 hpa that is currently along a Wainwright
to Fairbanks axis will continue to quickly push east tonight and
will be in the Yukon Territory by tomorrow morning. A high
amplitude ridge will then begin to build across the state. The
ridge axis will be along a line from the Chukotsk Peninsula to
Bethel at 4 AM Thursday. By 4 AM Friday the ridge axis will be
along a line from Barrow to McGrath. This ridge will lead to a
warming trend in temperatures for most locations over the next few
days. The ridge will be pushed eastward beginning on Saturday.

Surface...A quickly moving weather front will continue to push
across the state this evening.

West coast and western Interior...The main forecast issue that we
had today was the threat for high surf and minor coastal flooding.
Water levels came up this morning across Norton Sound as expected.
Tidal gages now show a decreasing trend in water levels; this
trend is expected to continue overnight. The Coastal Flood Warning
that was out today for zone 212 has been downgraded to a High Surf
Advisory. The decision for the downgrade was based on the fact
that the water never really made it high enough to cause any real
problems in eastern Norton Sound (based on calls placed to area
villages), combined with the rapid decreasing trend in water
levels. The high surf advisory was cancelled in zone 209. High
surf conditions never really developed near Kotzebue due to a
combination on slightly weaker that anticipated winds combined
with antecedent lower water levels in Kotzebue Sound due to wind
conditions the past few days. The front has mainly pushed through
the west coast and western Interior this afternoon and the
precipitation has generally ended. Thus, the Winter Weather
Advisory that was out for zone 217 was ended about 2 hours early.
Behind the front this evening expect winds from the west or
southwest with some places in the western Interior gusting to 30
mph.

Central and eastern Interior...At this hour the front is currently
along a line from Fairbanks to Fort Yukon pushing east. The
dominate precipitation type this evening will be rain; however,
there may be some snow mixed in at times, particularly at the
higher elevations as well as right at the onset of precipitation as
the front begins to push through an area. There will be a gradual
clearing trend on Thursday and Thursday night. The clearing skies
Thursday night will allow low temperatures on Friday morning to
drop into the 20s or upper teens (the coldest temperatures will
be in the upper Tanana Valley). Temperatures on Friday, however,
will rebound nicely thanks to the building upper level ridge.
Above normal high temperatures will continue into Saturday across
the Interior.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...The front will bring a mix of rain
and snow to the area as it pushes east tonight. For areas near sea
level, the precipitation type will start off as rain before
mixing with and changing to snow later this evening. Little to no
snow accumulation is expected for areas near sea level. In the
Brooks Range the precipitation type is expected to be all snow. 1
to 4 inches of snow accumulation is expected in the Brooks Range
tonight, with the highest accumulations expected in east of the
Dalton Highway. There will a another quick shot of rain or snow
Thursday night into Friday morning with some precipitation
associated with a wave moving around the top of the ridge as it
builds in. A warming trend is expected to start on Friday and will
continue through the weekend as the ridge builds in.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong southeast winds
over the coastal areas through the weekend, but no issues are
anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...no issues at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ212.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

SEP 16