Small Craft Advisory 166, NWS Fairbanks, AK

443 
FZAK52 PAFG 212151
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
151 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-221245-
151 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 982 MB LOW CENTERED 460 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO 985 MB LOW BY FRI. A 977
MB NEAR SAINT PAUL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BRISTOL BAY BY
THU AFTERNOON AT 980 MB AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI
AND WEAKEN TO 987 MB.

$$

PKZ200-221245-
NORTON SOUND-
151 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-221245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
151 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-221245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
151 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-221245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
151 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

MAK/CCC SEP 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
308 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Models are generally in agreement through 90 hours with some
minor timing differences in the later model forecast on Friday
with how quickly the upper level low moves northward across the
Western Interior and Eastern Brooks Range on Friday.

Central and Eastern Interior... Strong and gusty southerly
chinook winds has developed across areas of the Alaska Range
today. Windy Pass has already developed wind gusts of 65 mph
earlier this morning, but there has been a slight decrease in
winds through the early afternoon. Have continued the high wind
warning for this region as expect the winds to come back up
through the late evening into Wednesday. The winds near and south
of Fort Greely started to increase earlier this morning, thus
decided to to immediately start the wind advisory as wind gusts
were of 50 to 55 mph. However, recent observations has shownDelta
Junctions winds increasing in the past couple hours as well.
Expect the winds to continue through Wednesday early evening.
Finally, in Isabel Pass the winds have been slowly increasing
through the day as reached 50 to 55 mph this afternoon. The winds
will continue to increase by early this evening when the high wind
warning goes into effect and will remain with wind gusts of 70 to
75 mph through Wednesday early evening. With the stronger winds
will keep most areas dry with increased cloud cover for central
and eastern Interior. Precipitation changes will increase tonight
for areas from Tanana to the White Mountains. The next big chance
of precipitation for Central and Eastern Interior will be on
Thursday into Friday as the southerly moist flow along with an
upper level low moves from Western Interior into Arctic Coast by
Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Rain has continued through
Western Interior with the strong southerly flow and push of
moisture. Precipitations amounts have been generally been light
for most locations and expected to continue through the evening,
except for areas in the Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys that have
reported nearly 1-2 inches in the past 24 hours. The winds have
diminished over the Upper Noatak and western Brooks Range and will
continue to diminish through the evening. Thus I have allowed the
wind advisory to expire at 4pm this afternoon. Although it may be
locally gusty in few locations like Howards Pass, overall winds
will decrease through the evening. Precipitation changes will push
towards the northern portions of the Western Interior on Wednesday
night into Thursday with snow levels generally 3000-4000 ft
through Thursday morning and falling to 2000ft as colder air
pushes across Northwest Alaska and the Western Brooks Range on
Thursday into Friday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Relatively quiet along the Arctic
coast as winds remain offshore flow. There will be some stronger
southwesterly winds of 25 to 30 mph for areas from Point Lay
through Deadhorse offshore in the coastal marine areas which will
produce small craft advisories through tonight. However, the winds
will quickly diminish by Wednesday morning below 25 mph. With the
southerly flow, there will be upslope snow developing on the south
facing portions of Brooks Range tonight through Wednesday night.
Areas along the Dalton highway may generally see 2-4 inches of
snow by Wednesday afternoon with Anaktuvuk Pass possibly getting
1-2 inches of snow through same period.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Decent amount of rainfall over the Upper Noatak and
Kobuk Valleys over the past 24 hours which may see increase in
small streams and rivers. Precipitation amounts ranging from 1-2
inches can been seen from various reporting stations in the area.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory FOR AKZ223-AKZ227.

High Wind Warning FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240.
&&

MAK Sep 16